Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century.