Kun Xiao1, Chao Guo1, Longxiang Su1, Peng Yan1, Xin Li1, Lixin Xie1. 1. 1 Department of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China ; 2 Department of Cardiology, Fuwai Hospital CAMS & PUMC, Beijing 100037, China ; 3 Department of Critical Care Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100032, China ; 4 Department of Internal Medicine, Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represents an increasing healthcare concern as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Our objective was to predict the outcome of COPD patients associated with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) by scoring models. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed on severe COPD patients within 24 hours of the onset of MODS. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE III, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated for patients. RESULTS: A total of 153 elderly patients were recruited. Compared to 30-day survivors, the number of failing organs and all of the scoring models were significantly higher in 30-day non-survivors. The SOFA showed the highest sensitivity and area under the curve (AUC) for predicting the prognosis of patients with MODS induced by acute exacerbation of COPD. The results of logistic regression indicated that factors that were correlated with the prognosis of COPD included the exacerbation history, SOFA score, number of failing organs, and duration of ICU stay. The value of exacerbation frequency for predicting the outcome of COPD was excellent (AUC: 0.892), with a sensitivity of 0.851 and a specificity of 0.797. CONCLUSIONS: The SOFA score, determined at the onset of MODS in elderly patients with COPD, was a reliable predictor of the prognosis. The exacerbation frequency, number of failing organs, and the SOFA score were risk factors of a poor prognosis, and the exacerbation frequency could also effectively predict the outcome of COPD.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represents an increasing healthcare concern as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Our objective was to predict the outcome of COPDpatients associated with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) by scoring models. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed on severe COPDpatients within 24 hours of the onset of MODS. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE III, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated for patients. RESULTS: A total of 153 elderly patients were recruited. Compared to 30-day survivors, the number of failing organs and all of the scoring models were significantly higher in 30-day non-survivors. The SOFA showed the highest sensitivity and area under the curve (AUC) for predicting the prognosis of patients with MODS induced by acute exacerbation of COPD. The results of logistic regression indicated that factors that were correlated with the prognosis of COPD included the exacerbation history, SOFA score, number of failing organs, and duration of ICU stay. The value of exacerbation frequency for predicting the outcome of COPD was excellent (AUC: 0.892), with a sensitivity of 0.851 and a specificity of 0.797. CONCLUSIONS: The SOFA score, determined at the onset of MODS in elderly patients with COPD, was a reliable predictor of the prognosis. The exacerbation frequency, number of failing organs, and the SOFA score were risk factors of a poor prognosis, and the exacerbation frequency could also effectively predict the outcome of COPD.
Authors: Stig Hagstad; Anders Bjerg; Linda Ekerljung; Helena Backman; Anne Lindberg; Eva Rönmark; Bo Lundbäck Journal: Chest Date: 2014-06 Impact factor: 9.410
Authors: Peter Burney; Anamika Jithoo; Bernet Kato; Christer Janson; David Mannino; Ewa Nizankowska-Mogilnicka; Michael Studnicka; Wan Tan; Eric Bateman; Ali Koçabas; William M Vollmer; Thorarrin Gislason; Guy Marks; Parvaiz A Koul; Imed Harrabi; Louisa Gnatiuc; Sonia Buist Journal: Thorax Date: 2013-12-18 Impact factor: 9.139