BACKGROUND: Sudden death is the most frequent mechanism of death in patients with chronic Chaga's cardiopathy, regardless of the degree of myocardial involvement. We developed a model to predict the risk of sudden death in patients with chronic Chaga's cardiopathy. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 373 patients. The association between the risk factors for chronic Chaga's cardiopathy and sudden death was assessed using Cox proportional-hazards analysis, and a risk score was determined. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive performance of the score and Kaplan Meier survival curves, which were stratified according to the score. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 66±44months, 43 patients experienced sudden death. Four independent predictors were identified, each of which was assigned a number of points proportional to the following regression coefficients: QT-interval dispersion (3 points), syncope (2 points), ventricular extrasystoles (1 point), and severe dysfunction of the left ventricle (1 point). We calculated risk scores for each patient and defined three groups: low risk (0 to 2 points), intermediate (3 to 4 points), and high risk (>5 points). The mortality rates of the three groups were 1.5%, 25%, and 51%, respectively. The C statistic for the prediction score was 0.84, which demonstrated good clinical relevance of the model. CONCLUSION: This simple risk score predicted sudden death in patients with chronic Chaga's heart disease.
BACKGROUND:Sudden death is the most frequent mechanism of death in patients with chronic Chaga's cardiopathy, regardless of the degree of myocardial involvement. We developed a model to predict the risk of sudden death in patients with chronic Chaga's cardiopathy. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 373 patients. The association between the risk factors for chronic Chaga's cardiopathy and sudden death was assessed using Cox proportional-hazards analysis, and a risk score was determined. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive performance of the score and Kaplan Meier survival curves, which were stratified according to the score. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 66±44months, 43 patients experienced sudden death. Four independent predictors were identified, each of which was assigned a number of points proportional to the following regression coefficients: QT-interval dispersion (3 points), syncope (2 points), ventricular extrasystoles (1 point), and severe dysfunction of the left ventricle (1 point). We calculated risk scores for each patient and defined three groups: low risk (0 to 2 points), intermediate (3 to 4 points), and high risk (>5 points). The mortality rates of the three groups were 1.5%, 25%, and 51%, respectively. The C statistic for the prediction score was 0.84, which demonstrated good clinical relevance of the model. CONCLUSION: This simple risk score predicted sudden death in patients with chronic Chaga's heart disease.
Authors: Antonia Pino-Marín; Germán José Medina-Rincón; Sebastian Gallo-Bernal; Alejandro Duran-Crane; Álvaro Ignacio Arango Duque; María Juliana Rodríguez; Ramón Medina-Mur; Frida T Manrique; Julian F Forero; Hector M Medina Journal: Pathogens Date: 2021-04-22
Authors: Fernanda de Souza Nogueira Sardinha Mendes; Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do Brasil Journal: Arq Bras Cardiol Date: 2017-05 Impact factor: 2.000
Authors: Paulo Marcos Matta Guedes; Cléber Mesquita de Andrade; Daniela Ferreira Nunes; Nathalie de Sena Pereira; Tamyres Bernadete Dantas Queiroga; George Luiz Lins Machado-Coelho; Manuela Sales Lima Nascimento; Maria Adelaide Do-Valle-Matta; Antônia Cláudia Jácome da Câmara; Egler Chiari; Lúcia Maria da Cunha Galvão Journal: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Date: 2016-04-26
Authors: Claudia Di Lorenzo Oliveira; Maria Carmo P Nunes; Enrico Antonio Colosimo; Emilly Malveira de Lima; Clareci S Cardoso; Ariela Mota Ferreira; Lea Campos de Oliveira; Carlos Henrique Valente Moreira; Ana Luiza Bierrenbach; Desireé Sant Ana Haikal; Sérgio Viana Peixoto; Maria Fernanda Lima-Costa; Ester Cerdeira Sabino; Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro Journal: J Am Heart Assoc Date: 2020-03-11 Impact factor: 5.501