Isaac Chun-Hai Fung1, Manoj Gambhir2, John W Glasser3, Hongjiang Gao3, Michael L Washington4, Amra Uzicanin3, Martin I Meltzer4. 1. Department of Epidemiology, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and. 2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and IHRC, Inc, Atlanta, Georgia Epidemiological Modelling Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; 3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and. 4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain. METHODS: To study the effect of school closures on the timing of epidemic peaks, we built a deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model of influenza transmission. We stratified the U.S. population into 4 age groups (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ≥ 65 years), and used contact matrices to model the average number of potentially disease transmitting, nonphysical contacts. RESULTS: For every week of school closure at day 5 of introduction and a 30% clinical attack rate scenario, epidemic peak would be delayed by approximately 5 days. For a 15% clinical attack rate scenario, 1 week closure would delay the peak by 9 days. Closing schools for less than 84 days (12 weeks) would not, however, reduce the estimated total number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Unless vaccine is available early, school closure alone may not be able to delay the peak until vaccine is ready to be deployed. Conversely, if vaccination begins quickly, school closure may be helpful in providing the time to vaccinate school-aged children before the pandemic peaks. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.
BACKGROUND: School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain. METHODS: To study the effect of school closures on the timing of epidemic peaks, we built a deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model of influenza transmission. We stratified the U.S. population into 4 age groups (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ≥ 65 years), and used contact matrices to model the average number of potentially disease transmitting, nonphysical contacts. RESULTS: For every week of school closure at day 5 of introduction and a 30% clinical attack rate scenario, epidemic peak would be delayed by approximately 5 days. For a 15% clinical attack rate scenario, 1 week closure would delay the peak by 9 days. Closing schools for less than 84 days (12 weeks) would not, however, reduce the estimated total number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Unless vaccine is available early, school closure alone may not be able to delay the peak until vaccine is ready to be deployed. Conversely, if vaccination begins quickly, school closure may be helpful in providing the time to vaccinate school-aged children before the pandemic peaks. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.
Entities:
Keywords:
influenza; mathematical model; social distancing
Authors: Shari Krishnaratne; Hannah Littlecott; Kerstin Sell; Jacob Burns; Julia E Rabe; Jan M Stratil; Tim Litwin; Clemens Kreutz; Michaela Coenen; Karin Geffert; Anna Helen Boger; Ani Movsisyan; Suzie Kratzer; Carmen Klinger; Katharina Wabnitz; Brigitte Strahwald; Ben Verboom; Eva Rehfuess; Renke L Biallas; Caroline Jung-Sievers; Stephan Voss; Lisa M Pfadenhauer Journal: Cochrane Database Syst Rev Date: 2022-01-17