Long-term modeling on HPV vaccination: do we really need any more?

The human papillomavirus (HPV) is closely related to cervical cancer. In 2007, the EMA approved two vaccines, a bivalent and a quadrivalent one, launched at three-dose schedules and very high prices worldwide. We describe what happened in the EU and what might change in the near future from an economic perspective. HPV vaccination is now established in most EU countries. The main target group of the programs is girls aged 10-14 years. Many western countries used competitive tendering to purchase the two vaccines, achieving considerable savings. The extension to males has been a hotly debated issue. The sex limitation implies that this vaccination cannot by definition achieve a 'herd immunity' effect. EMA recently approved a two-dose schedule for both vaccines that should lead to savings, although it is hard to predict how the forthcoming nonavalent vaccine will affect the market situation. Several economic evaluations based on long-term models have been published on the HPV vaccination in the recent years, using official list prices as a baseline. Most of these models can be considered mere exercises in long-term forecasting. Recently, further long-term models have been published with two- and three-dose schedules as alternatives, and the nonavalent vaccine. We wonder what added value they give for public policy purposes.