Do maximum waiting times guarantees change clinical priorities for elective treatment? Evidence from Scotland.

The level and distribution of patient waiting times for elective treatment are a major concern in publicly funded health care systems. Strict targets, which have specified maximum waiting times, have been introduced in the NHS over the last decade and have been criticised for distorting existing clinical priorities in scheduling hospital treatment. We demonstrate the usefulness of conditional density estimation (CDE) in the evaluation of the reform using data for Scotland for 2002 and 2007. We develop a modified goodness of fit test to discriminate between models with different numbers of bins. We document a change in prioritisation between different patient groups with longer waiting patients benefiting at the expense of those who previously waited less. Our results contribute to understanding the response of publicly funded health systems to enforced targets for maximum waiting times.