Screening prescription drugs for possible carcinogenicity: eleven to fifteen years of follow-up.

Using computerized pharmacy records from 1969 to 1973 for a cohort of 143,574 members of the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, we have been testing associations of 215 drugs or drug groups with subsequent incidence of cancer at 56 sites. This paper presents findings with follow-up through 1984. There were 227 statistically significant (P less than 0.05, two-tailed) associations: 170 positive, 57 negative. Some were undoubtedly chance findings; others were likely due to confounding by unmeasured covariables. However, several associations suggested hypotheses for further studies and/or the need for continued observation. Most notable among findings not previously reported were associations of several antibiotics, both oral and topical, with lung cancer. These associations could not be explained by indications for drug use or by differences in smoking habits between users and nonusers, and suggest a possible link between the occurrence of bacterial infections and risk for cancer. In general, our results continue to suggest that most medications used during that period did not affect cancer incidence substantially. However, for less frequently prescribed medications, our power to detect moderate increases in cancer risk was quite low.