The need for kidney transplantation in low- and middle-income countries in 2012: an epidemiological perspective.

Epidemiological and demographic transitions are shifting the burden of modifiable risk factors for chronic and end-stage kidney disease to low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). This shifting burden of disease--combined with economic transitions and health system reforms--has led to the rapid growth of dialysis populations in LMIC including Malaysia, Tunisia, Turkey, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay. Yet, compared to 1.5 million on dialysis in LMIC, only approximately 33,000 kidney transplants were performed in 2012. Reasons include health system factors (personnel, infrastructure, system coordination, and financing) and cultural factors (public and professional attitudes and the legal environment). The size of the dialysis populations, however, is generally a poor indicator of the potential need for kidney transplantation in LMIC. Population needs for kidney transplantation should instead be assessed based on the epidemiology of the actual underlying burden of disease (both treated and untreated), and the costs and benefits of treatment as well as prevention strategies relative to existing service provision. Here, we review current data on the global burden of end-stage kidney disease and the distribution of major risk factors, and compare this to access to kidney transplantation in 2012.