Ian Sheerin1, Terri Green, Diana Sarfati, Brian Cox. 1. Department of Population Health, University of Otago, Christchurch, PO Box 4345, Christchurch, New Zealand. ian.sheerin@otago.ac.nz.
Abstract
AIM: To estimate volumes and costs of health services required for new cases of colorectal cancers in New Zealand from 2014 to 2026 in the absence of population screening. METHOD: Annual incidence of colorectal cancer, by stage, location and age was estimated for 2006-2026 based on NZ cancer registry data for 2001-2005. Treatment protocols were determined based on current best practice. An economics forecasting model was developed to estimate annual volumes and costs of health services to treat new cases of colorectal cancer expected to present each year from 2014 to 2026. Survival rates and other model parameters were drawn from the literature. Costs are presented at 2011 prices. RESULTS: Annual health service costs of new colorectal cancer presentations in New Zealand are estimated to increase from approximately $83.6 million in 2014 to $100.2 million by 2026, if no systematic screening programme is introduced. The majority of these costs will be for surgery and colonoscopies. CONCLUSION: These results provide a baseline against which to compare the level of resources required if a population screening programme is introduced. Planning is necessary to manage costs and services for colorectal cancer, even without a systematic population screening programme.
AIM: To estimate volumes and costs of health services required for new cases of colorectal cancers in New Zealand from 2014 to 2026 in the absence of population screening. METHOD: Annual incidence of colorectal cancer, by stage, location and age was estimated for 2006-2026 based on NZ cancer registry data for 2001-2005. Treatment protocols were determined based on current best practice. An economics forecasting model was developed to estimate annual volumes and costs of health services to treat new cases of colorectal cancer expected to present each year from 2014 to 2026. Survival rates and other model parameters were drawn from the literature. Costs are presented at 2011 prices. RESULTS: Annual health service costs of new colorectal cancer presentations in New Zealand are estimated to increase from approximately $83.6 million in 2014 to $100.2 million by 2026, if no systematic screening programme is introduced. The majority of these costs will be for surgery and colonoscopies. CONCLUSION: These results provide a baseline against which to compare the level of resources required if a population screening programme is introduced. Planning is necessary to manage costs and services for colorectal cancer, even without a systematic population screening programme.