Adaptive policy responses to water shortage mitigation in the arid regions--a systematic approach based on eDPSIR, DEMATEL, and MCDA.

Most of the arid and semi-arid regions are located in the developing countries, while the availability of water in adequate quantity and quality is an essential condition to approach sustainable development. In this research, "enhanced Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (eDPSIR)" sustainability framework was applied to deal with water shortage in Yazd, an arid province of Iran. Then, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique was integrated into the driven components of eDPSIR, to quantify the inter-linkages among fundamental anthropogenic indicators (i.e. causes and effects). The paper's structure included: (1) identifying the indicators of DPSIR along with structuring eDPSIR causal networks, (2) using the DEMATEL technique to evaluate the inter-relationships among the causes and effects along with determining the key indicators, (3) decomposing the problem into a system of hierarchies, (4) employing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique to evaluate the weight of each criterion, and (5) applying complex proportional assessment with Grey interval numbers (COPRAS-G) method to obtain the most conclusive adaptive policy response. The systematic quantitative analysis of causes and effects revealed that the root sources of water shortage in the study area were the weak enforcement of law and regulations, decline of available freshwater resources for development, and desertification consequences. According to the results, mitigating the water shortage in Yazd could be feasible by implementation of such key adaptive policy-responses as providing effective law enforcement, updating the standards and regulations, providing social learning, and boosting stakeholders' collaboration.