M P Ward1, M G Garner, B D Cowled. 1. The University of Sydney, Faculty of Veterinary Science, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, New South Wales, 2570, Australia. michael.ward@sydney.edu.au.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To use simulation modelling to predict the potential spread and to explore control options for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion in a mixed wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem in northern Australia. DESIGN: Based on aerial surveys, expert opinion and published data, the wild pig and grazing cattle distributions were simulated. A susceptible-infected-resistant disease-spread model was coded and parameterised according to published literature and expert opinion. METHODS: A baseline scenario was simulated in which infection was introduced via wild pigs, with transmission from pigs to cattle and no disease control. Assumptions regarding disease transmission were investigated via sensitivity analyses. Predicted size and length of outbreaks were compared for different control strategies based on movement standstill, surveillance and depopulation. RESULTS: In most of the simulations, FMD outbreaks were predicted to be ongoing after 6 months, with more cattle herds infected than wild pig herds (median 907 vs. 22, respectively). Assuming only pig-to-pig transmission, the infection routinely died out. In contrast, assuming cattle-to-cattle, cattle-to-pig or pig-to-cattle transmission resulted in FMD establishing and spreading in more than 75% of simulations. A control strategy targeting wild pigs only was not predicted to be successful. Control based on cattle only was successful in eradicating the disease. However, control targeting both pigs and cattle resulted in smaller outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: If FMD is controlled in cattle in the modelled ecosystem, it is likely to be self-limiting in wild pigs. However, to eradicate disease as quickly as possible, both wild pigs and cattle should be targeted for control.
OBJECTIVE: To use simulation modelling to predict the potential spread and to explore control options for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion in a mixed wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem in northern Australia. DESIGN: Based on aerial surveys, expert opinion and published data, the wild pig and grazing cattle distributions were simulated. A susceptible-infected-resistant disease-spread model was coded and parameterised according to published literature and expert opinion. METHODS: A baseline scenario was simulated in which infection was introduced via wild pigs, with transmission from pigs to cattle and no disease control. Assumptions regarding disease transmission were investigated via sensitivity analyses. Predicted size and length of outbreaks were compared for different control strategies based on movement standstill, surveillance and depopulation. RESULTS: In most of the simulations, FMD outbreaks were predicted to be ongoing after 6 months, with more cattle herds infected than wild pig herds (median 907 vs. 22, respectively). Assuming only pig-to-pig transmission, the infection routinely died out. In contrast, assuming cattle-to-cattle, cattle-to-pig or pig-to-cattle transmission resulted in FMD establishing and spreading in more than 75% of simulations. A control strategy targeting wild pigs only was not predicted to be successful. Control based on cattle only was successful in eradicating the disease. However, control targeting both pigs and cattle resulted in smaller outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: If FMD is controlled in cattle in the modelled ecosystem, it is likely to be self-limiting in wild pigs. However, to eradicate disease as quickly as possible, both wild pigs and cattle should be targeted for control.
Authors: Kristen Hughes; Geoffrey T Fosgate; Christine M Budke; Michael P Ward; Ruth Kerry; Ben Ingram Journal: PLoS One Date: 2017-09-13 Impact factor: 3.240