Developing health care workforces for uncertain futures.

Conventional approaches to health care workforce planning are notoriously unreliable. In part, this is due to the uncertainty of the future health milieu. An approach to health care workforce planning that accommodates this uncertainty is not only possible but can also generate intelligence on which planning and consequent development can be reliably based. Drawing on the experience of Health Workforce New Zealand, the author outlines some of the approaches being used in New Zealand. Instead of relying simply on health care data, which provides a picture of current circumstances in health systems, the author argues that workforce planning should rely on health care intelligence--looking beyond the numbers to build understanding of how to achieve desired outcomes. As health care systems throughout the world respond to challenges such as reform efforts, aging populations of patients and providers, and maldistribution of physicians (to name a few), New Zealand's experience may offer a model for rethinking workforce planning to truly meet health care needs.