The Great Recession in Portugal: impact on hospital care use.

The Great Recession started in Portugal in 2009, coupled with severe austerity. This study examines its impact on hospital care utilization, interpreted as caused by demand-side effects (related to variations in population income and health) and supply-side effects (related to hospitals' tighter budgets and reduced capacity). The database included all in-patient stays at all Portuguese NHS hospitals over the 2001-2012 period (n=17.7 millions). We analyzed changes in discharge rates, casemix index, and length of stay (LOS), using a before-after methodology. We additionally measured the association of health care indicators to unemployment. A 3.2% higher rate of discharges was observed after 2009. Urgent stays increased by 2.5%, while elective in-patient stays decreased by 1.4% after 2011. The LOS was 2.8% shorter after the crisis onset, essentially driven by the 4.5% decrease among non-elective stays. A one percentage point increase in unemployment rate was associated to a 0.4% increase in total volume, a 2.3% decrease in day cases, and a 0.1% decrease in LOS. The increase in total and urgent cases may reflect delayed out-patient care and health deterioration; the reduced volume of elective stays possibly signal a reduced capacity; finally, the shorter stays may indicate either efficiency-enhancing measures or reduced quality.