Qun Mai1, Patrick Aboagye-Sarfo, Frank M Sanfilippo, David B Preen, Daniel M Fatovich. 1. Clinical Modelling, Health System Improvement Unit, Innovation and Health System Reform, Department of Health Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia; Centre for Health Services Research, School of Population Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To predict the number of ED presentations in Western Australia (WA) in the next 5 years, stratified by place of treatment, age, triage and disposition. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis of 7 year monthly WA statewide ED presentation data from the financial years 2006/07 to 2012/13 using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multivariate vector-ARIMA techniques. RESULTS: ED presentations in WA were predicted to increase from 990,342 in 2012/13 to 1,250,991 (95% CI: 982,265-1,519,718) in 2017/18, an increase of 260,649 (or 26.3%). The majority of this increase would occur in metropolitan WA (84.2%). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in metropolitan WA in the next 5 years was predicted to be 6.5% compared with 2.0% in the non-metropolitan area. The greatest growth in metropolitan WA would be in ages 65 and over (CAGR, 6.9%), triage categories 2 and 3 (8.3% and 7.7%, respectively) and admitted (9.8%) cohorts. The only predicted decrease was triage category 5 (-5.3%). CONCLUSIONS: ED demand in WA will exceed population growth. The highest growth will be in patients with complex care needs. An integrated system-wide strategy is urgently required to ensure access, quality and sustainability of the health system.
OBJECTIVE: To predict the number of ED presentations in Western Australia (WA) in the next 5 years, stratified by place of treatment, age, triage and disposition. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis of 7 year monthly WA statewide ED presentation data from the financial years 2006/07 to 2012/13 using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multivariate vector-ARIMA techniques. RESULTS:ED presentations in WA were predicted to increase from 990,342 in 2012/13 to 1,250,991 (95% CI: 982,265-1,519,718) in 2017/18, an increase of 260,649 (or 26.3%). The majority of this increase would occur in metropolitan WA (84.2%). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in metropolitan WA in the next 5 years was predicted to be 6.5% compared with 2.0% in the non-metropolitan area. The greatest growth in metropolitan WA would be in ages 65 and over (CAGR, 6.9%), triage categories 2 and 3 (8.3% and 7.7%, respectively) and admitted (9.8%) cohorts. The only predicted decrease was triage category 5 (-5.3%). CONCLUSIONS:ED demand in WA will exceed population growth. The highest growth will be in patients with complex care needs. An integrated system-wide strategy is urgently required to ensure access, quality and sustainability of the health system.
Authors: Alvaro David Orjuela-Cañón; Andres Leonardo Jutinico; Mario Enrique Duarte González; Carlos Enrique Awad García; Erika Vergara; María Angélica Palencia Journal: Heliyon Date: 2022-07-06
Authors: Tae Han Kim; Ki Jeong Hong; Sang Do Shin; Gwan Jin Park; Sungwan Kim; Nhayoung Hong Journal: Am J Emerg Med Date: 2018-05-10 Impact factor: 2.469