| Literature DB >> 25567981 |
Henri A Thomassen1, Trevon Fuller1, Wolfgang Buermann2, Borja Milá3, Charles M Kieswetter4, Pablo Jarrín-V5, Susan E Cameron6, Eliza Mason7, Rena Schweizer8, Jasmin Schlunegger8, Janice Chan1, Ophelia Wang9, Manuel Peralvo10, Christopher J Schneider4, Catherine H Graham11, John P Pollinger12, Sassan Saatchi13, Robert K Wayne12, Thomas B Smith12.
Abstract
Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization.Entities:
Keywords: Andes; Ecuador; conservation prioritization; ecological modeling; evolutionary process; generalized dissimilarity modeling; landscape genetics; species distribution
Year: 2011 PMID: 25567981 PMCID: PMC3352560 DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00172.x
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Evol Appl ISSN: 1752-4571 Impact factor: 5.183
Figure 1Schematic of our workflow for this paper. (i) Species distribution models for the seven target taxa were created using Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006), species-presence point localities, and a set of environmental variables. The modeled species distributions served to delimit our study area for modeling intraspecific variation. (ii) We predicted the patterns of genetic and morphological diversity using in situ data and the environmental variables in a generalized dissimilarity modeling framework (Ferrier et al. 2007). For each genetic or morphological trait, these analyses resulted in a GIS layer with values representing 50 similarity classes. These classes were separated as individual layers in ArcGIS (version 9.3) and used in (iii) subsequent ResNet reserve selection software (Sarkar et al. 2009) to prioritize areas for conservation based on genetic and morphological variation. (iv) We also used species distributions of birds, mammals, and amphibians, available from public databases, to prioritize areas for conservation based on species richness and complementarity. Finally, we combined the results from steps (iii) and (iv) and compared all results with each other and with currently protected areas.
Results from Maxent species distribution models
| Most important variables | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Species | No. sites | AUC | Test AUC | Test | By themselves | When omitted |
| WBWC | 71 | 0.898 | 0.899 | 0.001 | QSCATmean, Bio18 | Bio18, QSCATmean |
| MFP | 103 | 0.997 | 0.995 | <0.000 | SRTM, Bio4 | Bio4, SRTM |
| SNFC | 34 | 0.987 | 0.983 | <0.000 | SRTM, SRTMstd | SRTM |
| Cb | 31 | 0.949 | 0.786 | 0.009 | Bio16, 12, 18 | LAImax, -range, SRTMstd |
| Cc | 20 | 0.935 | 0.790 | 0.002 | Bio18, 16 | LAImax |
| Cp | 36 | 0.895 | 0.744 | 0.007 | Bio16, 18 | ∼Equal for all variables |
| Pw-n | 135 | 0.990 | 0.983 | 0.000 | Bio1, 5, 6, SRTM | ∼Equal for all variables |
Shown are the number of georeferenced sites used to build the distribution model; two measures of model performance: (i) the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) for full models and for test data sets (40% of the full data set), and (ii) the P-value from a one-tailed binomial test on the Maxent extrinsic omission rate and proportional predicted area (Anderson et al. 2002), where significant P-values indicate high model performance; the most important environmental predictor variables as assessed by a jackknifing procedure, where the variable either is used on its own or is the only one omitted from the data set. See Table S1 for information on the environmental variables.
WBWC, wedge-billed woodcreeper; MFP, masked flowerpiercer; SNFC, streak-necked flycatcher; Cb, Carollia brevicauda; Cc, Carollia castanea; Cp, Carollia perspicillata; Pw-n, Pristimantis w-nigrum; SRTM, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission.
From Buermann et al. (2008).
Generalized dissimilarity modeling results for significant models
| Species/region | Trait | % Explained | Variables selected |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBWC/West | AFLP | 98.5 / 98.4 / 50.8 / 19.4 | 18, 6, 8, 4, 7, 1, 16 |
| Tarsus length | 60.7 / 60.7 / 0.0 / 34.3 | 6, 1, 8 | |
| Wing length | 91.7 / 91.7 / 6.1 / 34.3 | 7, 13, 6, 14 | |
| Tail length | 82.4 / 81.5 / 6.1 / 24.6 | 7, 13, 9, 1, 3 | |
| Bill depth | 92.5 / 91.5 / 22.7 / 11.4 | 11, 12, 1, 5, 8, 9 | |
| Bill length | 63.9 / 63.9 / 0.0 / 0.0 | 5, 8, 14, 6, 4 | |
| WBWC/East | AFLP | 72.2 / 71.5 / 8.8 / 28.0 | 12, 17, 9, 6, 1, 16, 5, 11, 14 |
| Tarsus length | 70.5 / 50.5 / 10.9 / 13.8 | 14, 5, 6, 4, 9 | |
| Bill depth | 27.2 / 23.1 / 10.4 / 2.4 | 8, 1, 5, 16, 17, 9 | |
| MFP/Ecuador | Msat | 51.0 / 51.0 / 2.4 / 11.2 | 6, 17, 16, 9, 11, 18, 8 |
| Tarsus length | 43.2 / 42.9 / 8.7 / 20.0 | 3, 14, 8, 5, 1, 12 | |
| Bill length | 70.8 / 70.8 / 0.0 / 8.1 | 17, 5, 11, 9, 12, 13, 4 | |
| SNFC/Ecuador | Msat | 42.0 / 40.6 / 12.0 / 2.4 | 9, 16, 18, 1, 4, 17, 11 |
| Tarsus length | 73.8 / 73.8 / 0.0 / 45.8 | 13, 12, 14, 4 | |
| Tail length | 90.8 / 90.8 / 0.0 / 84.3 | 8, 12, 9, 5, 16, 18 | |
| Cb/West | Zygomatic arch | 33.1 / 33.1 / 0.1 / 25.7 | 13, 7, 5, 6, 15, 18, 9 |
| Forearm length | 68.9 / 68.9 / 0.1 / 9.6 | 8, 16, 9, 7, 1 | |
| Cb/East | Forearm length | 16.1 / 16.0 / 3.7 / 0.7 | 7, 16, 13, 12, 6, 4, 1, 9 |
| Cc/West | Zygomatic arch | 40.0 / 40.0 / 0.8 / 35.8 | 17, 15, 10, 8 |
| Cc/East | Zygomatic arch | 20.0 / 18.2 / 3.4 / 10.9 | 9, 5, 6, 4, 1, 7 |
| Forearm length | 60.2 / 60.2 / 15.8 / 3.6 | 7, 4, 8, 11, 9, 6 | |
| Skull size | 42.4 / 42.4 / 23.1 / 8.4 | 4, 8, 6, 5, 4, 17, 11, 12 | |
| Cp/West | Zygomatic arch | 78.5 / 78.5 / 1.3 / 39.5 | 18, 16, 14, 4, 17, 9, 8, 3, 10 |
| Forearm length | 33.7 / 32.3 / 21.4 / 1.1 | 5, 11, 15, 1, 9, 17 | |
| Skull size | 61.6 / 61.2 / 39.6 / 5.7 | 16, 1, 18, 14, 3, 12, 4, 7 | |
| Cp/East | AFLP | 34.6 / 34.6 / 0.0 / 11.1 | 17, 18, 5 |
| Zygomatic arch | 19.0 / 18.5 / 2.2 / 1.0 | 6, 1, 9, 4, 12, 11, 14, 5, 16 | |
| Forearm length | 12.8 / 12.8 / 0.0 / 0.2 | 5, 6, 7, 16 | |
| Skull size | 22.3 / 19.2 / 6.2 / 1.3 | 1, 8, 11, 5, 6, 15, 7, 9, 18 | |
| Pw-n | nDNA | 79.2 / 76.7 / 49.5 / 4.1 | 18, 15, 12, 1, 16, 11, 4 |
| Gape width | 54.1 / 53.8 / 0.05 / 11.5 | 11, 8, 17, 16, 13, 6, 1, 9, 7 | |
| Jaw length | 34.1 / 33.6 / 0.8 / 17.4 | 8, 15, 13, 5, 3, 1, 6, 17, 11, 12 | |
| Met-car | 34.9 / 34.6 / 0.0 / 1.9 | 9, 4, 17, 6, 11, 12, 1, 18 | |
| Phalanges | 55.9 / 55.9 / 0.0 / 4.5 | 9, 4, 7, 11, 12, 8, 3, 17 | |
| Radio-ulna | 36.9 / 36.9 / 0.8 / 18.6 | 8, 11, 6, 15, 1, 16, 3, 4, 10, 17 | |
| Femur length | 40.9 / 40.9 / 0.0 / 4.3 | 11, 9, 7, 5, 17, 8 |
WBWC, wedge-billed woodcreeper; MFP, masked flowerpiercer; SNFC, streak-necked flycatcher; Cb, Carollia brevicauda; Cc, Carollia castanea; Cp, Carollia perspicillata; Pw-n, Pristimantis w-nigrum; AFLP, amplified fragment length polymorphism; SRTM, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission.
Percentages of total variation explained are shown for models with the following predictor variables: distance and environment (full model)/only environment/only distance/random layers.
Variables are shown in decreasing order of importance. 1 geographic distance; 2 Andean barrier; 3 elevation (SRTM); 4 elevation std (SRTMstd); 5 QSCATMean; 6 QSCATStd; 7 Treecover; 8 LAImax; 9 LAIrange; 10 Bio1; 11 Bio2; 12 Bio4; 13 Bio5; 14 Bio6; 15 Bio12; 16 Bio15; 17 Bio16; 18 Bio17.
Figure 2Maps indicating the highest 10% of variation per unit area (3 × 3 km) (alpha-diversity) in genetic and morphological variation in the seven target species. (A) wedge-billed woodcreeper Glyphorynchus spirurus; (B) masked flowerpiercer Diglossa cyanea; (C) streak-necked flycatcher Mionectes striaticollis; (D) the frog species Pristimantis w-nigrum; (E) silky short-tailed bat Carollia brevicauda; (F) chestnut short-tailed bat Carollia castanea; and (G) Seba's short-tailed bat Carollia perspicillata. Colors indicate the types of variation examined: red: genetic data; blue: morphological data (different shades of blue indicate different morphological traits); yellow: overlapping regions of high levels of alpha-diversity in both genetic and morphological data. Grey scale indicates elevation, with low elevations in black and high elevations in white.
Comparison of areas selected by ResNet to total area of Ecuador and percentages located in existing reserves
| Measure of biodiversity | Target | % Area of Ecuador | % In reserves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves | 16.0 | ||
| Species | |||
| Amphibians | 1 | 0.1 | 18.1 |
| 5% | 4.7 | 16.6 | |
| 10% | 9.5 | 16.1 | |
| 20% | 18.9 | 16.1 | |
| Birds | 1 | 0.0 | 18.2 |
| 5% | 5.7 | 15.9 | |
| 10% | 11.4 | 17.7 | |
| 20% | 22.7 | 18.0 | |
| Mammals | 1 | 0.0 | 11.1 |
| 5% | 5.8 | 15.7 | |
| 10% | 11.4 | 17.7 | |
| 20% | 22.1 | 17.6 | |
| All species | 1 | 0.1 | 14.1 |
| 5% | 5.8 | 15.2 | |
| 10% | 11.3 | 16.5 | |
| 20% | 22.4 | 15.9 | |
| Intraspecific variation | |||
| Gen/morph | 1 | 0.0 | 23.8 |
| 5% | 4.3 | 23.3 | |
| 10% | 8.6 | 21.1 | |
| 20% | 17.5 | 19.7 | |
Figures are provided for reserves based on each of the three different taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, mammals, and the three groups combined) for which species-level data were available, as well as for intraspecific variation (gen/morph).
The set of selected sites was required to represent at least a certain target percentage of the total area occupied by a species, or by a generalized dissimilarity modeling class of similar genotypes or phenotypes. We specified targets of one occurrence (one site of 2 × 2 km), 5%, 10%, and 20%.
Percent overlap between ResNet solutions for different levels of information at targets of 10% and 20%
| Process | Pattern | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gen/morph | All species | Amphibians | Birds | Mammals | |
| Target = 10 | |||||
| Gen/morph | 100.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 12.4 |
| All species | 7.6 | 100.0 | 27.5 | 30.4 | 17.9 |
| Amphibians | 9.0 | 32.8 | 100.0 | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| Birds | 8.7 | 30.3 | 10.4 | 100.0 | 11.6 |
| Mammals | 9.4 | 17.8 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 100.0 |
| Target = 20 | |||||
| Gen/morph | 100.0 | 19.4 | 18.3 | 22.1 | 22.7 |
| All species | 15.2 | 100.0 | 35.1 | 41.9 | 28.3 |
| Amphibians | 17.0 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 22.6 | 23.8 |
| Birds | 17.1 | 41.2 | 18.8 | 100.0 | 20.4 |
| Mammals | 18.0 | 28.5 | 20.3 | 20.9 | 100.0 |
Figures are provided for overlap between reserves based on each of the three different taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, mammals, and the three groups combined) for which species-level data were available and based on intraspecific variation (gen/morph). Results are shown for representation targets of 10% and 20% of the total area occupied by each species or by each class of similar genotypes or phenotypes. The table reads as: percentage of ‘row’ overlapping with ‘column’.
Figure 3Composite map of selected reserves at a 10% representation target using species-level data (green) and genetic and morphological data (blue) in ResNet and areas harboring high levels of intraspecific alpha-diversity (orange and red). Areas delimited with solid black lines indicate existing reserves. Areas indicated with dashed lines are those where one or more of the generalized dissimilarity models show high uncertainty, because the associated environmental conditions are outside the range of those encountered at sampled locations.