James A Johnstone1, Nathan J Mantua2. 1. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; and jajstone@gmail.com. 2. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA 95060.