Literature DB >> 25506092

Stagnating Life Expectancies and Future Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty*

Justin T Denney1, Robert McNown2, Richard G Rogers3, Steven Doubilet3.   

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This article provides a timely assessment of U.S. life expectancy given recent stalls in the growth of length of life, the continuing drop in international rankings of life expectancy for the U.S., and during a period of growing social and economic insecurity.
METHODS: Time series analysis is used on over 70 years of data from the Human Mortality Database to forecast future life expectancy to the year 2055.
RESULTS: The results show limited improvements in U.S. life expectancy at birth, less than 3 years on average, for both men and women.
CONCLUSIONS: Even in uncertain times, it is important to look forward in preparing for the needs of future populations. The results presented here underscore the relevance of policy and health initiatives aimed at improving the nation's health and reveal important insight into possible limits to mortality improvement over the next five decades.

Entities:  

Keywords:  health; inequality; life expectancy; mortality

Year:  2013        PMID: 25506092      PMCID: PMC4264628          DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00930.x

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Soc Sci Q        ISSN: 0038-4941


  36 in total

1.  Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality.

Authors:  R Lee; T Miller
Journal:  Demography       Date:  2001-11

2.  Diffusion, cohort change, and social patterns of smoking().

Authors:  Fred C Pampel
Journal:  Soc Sci Res       Date:  2005-03

3.  Deadweight?--The influence of obesity on longevity.

Authors:  Samuel H Preston
Journal:  N Engl J Med       Date:  2005-03-17       Impact factor: 91.245

4.  Consequences of health trends and medical innovation for the future elderly.

Authors:  Dana P Goldman; Baoping Shang; Jayanta Bhattacharya; Alan M Garber; Michael Hurd; Geoffrey F Joyce; Darius N Lakdawalla; Constantijn Panis; Paul G Shekelle
Journal:  Health Aff (Millwood)       Date:  2005       Impact factor: 6.301

5.  The future of human longevity: a demographer's perspective.

Authors:  J R Wilmoth
Journal:  Science       Date:  1998-04-17       Impact factor: 47.728

6.  Forecasting mortality: a parameterized time series approach.

Authors:  R McNown; A Rogers
Journal:  Demography       Date:  1989-11

7.  Actual causes of death in the United States.

Authors:  J M McGinnis; W H Foege
Journal:  JAMA       Date:  1993-11-10       Impact factor: 56.272

8.  Socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and mortality: results from a nationally representative prospective study of US adults.

Authors:  P M Lantz; J S House; J M Lepkowski; D R Williams; R P Mero; J Chen
Journal:  JAMA       Date:  1998-06-03       Impact factor: 56.272

9.  The increasing disparity in mortality between socioeconomic groups in the United States, 1960 and 1986.

Authors:  G Pappas; S Queen; W Hadden; G Fisher
Journal:  N Engl J Med       Date:  1993-07-08       Impact factor: 91.245

Review 10.  Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) 'On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies'.

Authors:  Thomas B L Kirkwood
Journal:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci       Date:  2015-04-19       Impact factor: 6.237

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  3 in total

1.  Poverty, health, and graduate medical education.

Authors:  Mark L Wieland
Journal:  J Grad Med Educ       Date:  2013-03

2.  Social Policy Expenditures and Life Expectancy in High-Income Countries.

Authors:  Megan M Reynolds; Mauricio Avendano
Journal:  Am J Prev Med       Date:  2018-01       Impact factor: 5.043

3.  The increasing lifespan variation gradient by area-level deprivation: A decomposition analysis of Scotland 1981-2011.

Authors:  Rosie Seaman; Tim Riffe; Alastair H Leyland; Frank Popham; Alyson van Raalte
Journal:  Soc Sci Med       Date:  2019-04-16       Impact factor: 4.634

  3 in total

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