Experimental climate warming enforces seed dormancy in South African Proteaceae but seedling drought resilience exceeds summer drought periods.

Two hypotheses-that elevated night-time temperatures due to climate warming would enforce post-fire dormancy of Proteaceae seed due to low moisture, and that periods without rain during summer would exceed desiccation periods tolerated by Proteaceae seedlings-were tested empirically. Enforced dormancy, i.e., the inability to germinate due to an environmental restraint, was tested by measuring seed germination in 11 Proteaceae species in experimental mesocosms whose soils were artificially elevated by 1.4 and 3.5 °C above ambient by far-red wavelength filtered infrared lamps. Diminished totality of germination and velocities were observed in 91 and 64%, respectively, of the Proteaceae species tested. Drought resilience was tested in one-year-old seedlings of 16 Proteaceae species by withholding water from potted plants during summer in a greenhouse. The most drought-resilient Proteaceae species displayed the lowest initial transpiration rates at field capacity, the smallest declines in transpiration rate with decreasing soil water content, and the lowest water losses by transpiration. Projected drought periods leading to the complete cessation of transpiration in all Proteaceae species greatly exceeded the number of days without rain per month during summer in the current distribution ranges of those species. It was therefore concluded that enforced seed dormancy induced by elevated night-time temperatures is the post-fire recruitment stage of Proteaceae that is most sensitive to climate warming.