BACKGROUND: The incidence rate of ischemic stroke in Japanese non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients without anticoagulation therapy remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of 3,588 patients from the Shinken Database (n=1,099), J-RHYTHM Registry (n=1,002), and Fushimi AF Registry (n=1,487) to determine the incidence rate of ischemic stroke in Japanese NVAF patients without anticoagulation therapy. Average patient age was 68.1 years. During the follow-up period (total, 5,188 person-years; average, 1.4 years), 69 patients suffered from ischemic stroke (13.3 per 1,000 person-years; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 10.5-16.8). The incidence rates of ischemic stroke were 5.4, 9.3, and 24.7 per 1,000 person-years and 5.3, 5.5, and 18.4 per 1,000 person-years in patients with low (0), intermediate (1), and high (≥ 2) CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, respectively. History of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (hazard ratio [HR], 3.25; 95% CI: 1.86-5.67), age ≥ 75 years (HR, 2.31; 95% CI: 1.18-4.52), and hypertension (HR, 1.69; 95% CI: 1.01-2.86) were independent risk factors for ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: A low incidence rate of ischemic stroke was observed in Japanese NVAF patients except for those with CHADS2 score ≥ 2. In this pooled analysis, history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, advanced age, and hypertension were identified as independent risk factors for ischemic stroke.
BACKGROUND: The incidence rate of ischemic stroke in Japanese non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients without anticoagulation therapy remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of 3,588 patients from the Shinken Database (n=1,099), J-RHYTHM Registry (n=1,002), and Fushimi AF Registry (n=1,487) to determine the incidence rate of ischemic stroke in Japanese NVAF patients without anticoagulation therapy. Average patient age was 68.1 years. During the follow-up period (total, 5,188 person-years; average, 1.4 years), 69 patients suffered from ischemic stroke (13.3 per 1,000 person-years; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 10.5-16.8). The incidence rates of ischemic stroke were 5.4, 9.3, and 24.7 per 1,000 person-years and 5.3, 5.5, and 18.4 per 1,000 person-years in patients with low (0), intermediate (1), and high (≥ 2) CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, respectively. History of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (hazard ratio [HR], 3.25; 95% CI: 1.86-5.67), age ≥ 75 years (HR, 2.31; 95% CI: 1.18-4.52), and hypertension (HR, 1.69; 95% CI: 1.01-2.86) were independent risk factors for ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: A low incidence rate of ischemic stroke was observed in Japanese NVAF patients except for those with CHADS2 score ≥ 2. In this pooled analysis, history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, advanced age, and hypertension were identified as independent risk factors for ischemic stroke.