Heart failure is a major contributor to hospital readmission penalties.

BACKGROUND: The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program provides incentives to hospitals to reduce early readmissions for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia (PNE). METHODS AND
RESULTS: To examine the contribution of each diagnosis to readmissions penalty size, data were obtained from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, American Hospital Association, and United States Census Bureau including number of cases; readmissions payment adjustment factor (values <1 indicate a penalty for excess readmissions), excess readmission ratio (ERR, or ratio of adjusted predicted readmission based on comorbidities, frailty, and individual patient demographics to expected probability of readmission at an average hospital) for each diagnosis, hospital teaching status, bed number, and zip code socioeconomic status. Of 2,228 hospitals with ≥25 cases per diagnosis, 1,636 received a penalty. Univariate correlation coefficients between penalty and ERR were -0.66, -0.61, and -0.43 for HF, PNE, and AMI, respectively (all P < .001). Correlation between ERRs was greatest for PNE and HF (0.30; P < .001) and weakest for PNE and AMI (0.12; P < .001). In regression analyses, the HF ERR explained the most variance in the penalty (R(2) range 0.21-0.44).
CONCLUSION: HF ERR, not the number of cases, was related to penalty magnitude. These findings have implications for the design of hospital-based quality initiatives regarding readmissions.