Ata H Afshar1, Navyugjit Virk1, Jahan Porhomayon2, Leili Pourafkari1, Hasan H Dosluoglu3, Nader D Nader4. 1. Department of Anesthesiology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA. 2. Department of Anesthesiology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA; VAWestern NY Healthcare System, Anesthesiology Services, Buffalo, NY. 3. VA Western NY Healthcare System, Surgical Services, Buffalo, NY. 4. Department of Anesthesiology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA; VAWestern NY Healthcare System, Anesthesiology Services, Buffalo, NY. Electronic address: nnader@buffalo.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: To examine the validity of Veterans Affair-VA risk assessment tool in predicting the perioperative and overall mortality among octogenarians. METHODS: This is a single-institution retrospective observational study, in which the clinical information of 1,618 octogenarians were extracted from the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. VA risk assessment tool and ASA classification were used to predict the probability of postoperative mortality and morbidity. Multiple risk groups were compared for mortality using multiple logistic regressions. RESULTS: There were 570 survivors and 1,048 nonsurvivors. VA risk tool strongly predicted perioperative 30-day mortality in receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve: .82 ± .02). The power of this tool, while acceptable, was less in predicting overall mortality (area under the curve: .68 ± .01). Age, dialysis, a history of congestive heart failure, functional status, transfusion, and weight loss were also associated with increased rate of death within 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: VA risk tool predicted both perioperative and overall mortality. Relatively strong power of this tool in predicting overall mortality may be unique to this age group because of their advanced age. Published by Elsevier Inc.
BACKGROUND: To examine the validity of Veterans Affair-VA risk assessment tool in predicting the perioperative and overall mortality among octogenarians. METHODS: This is a single-institution retrospective observational study, in which the clinical information of 1,618 octogenarians were extracted from the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. VA risk assessment tool and ASA classification were used to predict the probability of postoperative mortality and morbidity. Multiple risk groups were compared for mortality using multiple logistic regressions. RESULTS: There were 570 survivors and 1,048 nonsurvivors. VA risk tool strongly predicted perioperative 30-day mortality in receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve: .82 ± .02). The power of this tool, while acceptable, was less in predicting overall mortality (area under the curve: .68 ± .01). Age, dialysis, a history of congestive heart failure, functional status, transfusion, and weight loss were also associated with increased rate of death within 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: VA risk tool predicted both perioperative and overall mortality. Relatively strong power of this tool in predicting overall mortality may be unique to this age group because of their advanced age. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Authors: Tyler J Loftus; Elisha M Collins; Camille G Dessaigne; Amber N Himmler; Alicia M Mohr; Ryan M Thomas; Charles E Hobson; George A Sarosi; William J Zingarelli Journal: Surg Endosc Date: 2017-04-13 Impact factor: 4.584