Evelyn Yuxin Tay1, Stephanie Fook-Chong2, Choon Chiat Oh3, Thamotharampillai Thirumoorthy3, Shiu Ming Pang3, Haur Yueh Lee4. 1. National Skin Centre, Singapore. 2. Health Services Research and Biostatistics, Division of Research, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore. 3. Dermatology Unit, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore. 4. Dermatology Unit, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore. Electronic address: lee.haur.yueh@sgh.com.sg.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cellulitis is the most common skin and soft tissue infection and is associated with frequent recurrences. OBJECTIVES: An objective of our study was to identify factors for recurrence in patients who present with a first episode of lower-limb cellulitis. A secondary aim was to formulate a score based on observed clinical risk factors that might predict recurrence within a year. METHODS: Dermatology referral forms and national computerized records were reviewed from 2003 to 2012. Demographics, coexistent dermatoses, local factors, and comorbidities were reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 102 (45.3%) of 225 patients had recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that lymphedema (P < .0005), chronic venous insufficiency (P < .0005), peripheral vascular disease (P = .002), and deep vein thrombosis (P = .008) predicted for recurrence. The Cellulitis Recurrence Score (CRS) was constructed based on these factors. CRS ≥ 2 was associated with a positive predictive value of 83.6% and negative predictive value of 67.5%. Model performance was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, P = .753). LIMITATIONS: This is a retrospective study limited to an inpatient cohort. CONCLUSION: Lymphedema, chronic venous insufficiency, peripheral vascular disease, and deep vein thrombosis were risk factors. CRS is reliable for predicting recurrence, and early interventions should be considered in patients with CRS ≥ 2.
BACKGROUND:Cellulitis is the most common skin and soft tissue infection and is associated with frequent recurrences. OBJECTIVES: An objective of our study was to identify factors for recurrence in patients who present with a first episode of lower-limb cellulitis. A secondary aim was to formulate a score based on observed clinical risk factors that might predict recurrence within a year. METHODS: Dermatology referral forms and national computerized records were reviewed from 2003 to 2012. Demographics, coexistent dermatoses, local factors, and comorbidities were reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 102 (45.3%) of 225 patients had recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that lymphedema (P < .0005), chronic venous insufficiency (P < .0005), peripheral vascular disease (P = .002), and deep vein thrombosis (P = .008) predicted for recurrence. The Cellulitis Recurrence Score (CRS) was constructed based on these factors. CRS ≥ 2 was associated with a positive predictive value of 83.6% and negative predictive value of 67.5%. Model performance was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, P = .753). LIMITATIONS: This is a retrospective study limited to an inpatient cohort. CONCLUSION:Lymphedema, chronic venous insufficiency, peripheral vascular disease, and deep vein thrombosis were risk factors. CRS is reliable for predicting recurrence, and early interventions should be considered in patients with CRS ≥ 2.