Literature DB >> 2543987

Risk behavior-based model of the cubic growth of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States.

S A Colgate1, E A Stanley, J M Hyman, S P Layne, C Qualls.   

Abstract

The cumulative number of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States has grown as the cube of time rather than exponentially. We explain this by interactions involving partner choice and sexual frequency in a risk-behavior model with biased mixing. This leads to a saturation wave of infection moving from high- to low-risk groups. If this description is correct, then the decreasing growth rate of AIDS cases is not due to behavior changes; rather it is due to the intrinsic epidemiology of the disease.

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Year:  1989        PMID： 2543987      PMCID： PMC287360          DOI： 10.1073/pnas.86.12.4793

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A        ISSN： 0027-8424            Impact factor:   11.205


  14 in total

1.  Review of death certificates to assess completeness of AIDS case reporting.

Authors:  A M Hardy; E T Starcher; W M Morgan; J Druker; A Kristal; J M Day; C Kelly; E Ewing; J W Curran
Journal:  Public Health Rep       Date:  1987 Jul-Aug       Impact factor: 2.792

2.  Infectivity of the human immunodeficiency virus: estimates from a prospective study of homosexual men.

Authors:  R M Grant; J A Wiley; W Winkelstein
Journal:  J Infect Dis       Date:  1987-07       Impact factor: 5.226

3.  The Walter Reed staging classification for HTLV-III/LAV infection.

Authors:  R R Redfield; D C Wright; E C Tramont
Journal:  N Engl J Med       Date:  1986-01-09       Impact factor: 91.245

4.  Transmission dynamics of HIV infection.

Authors:  R M May; R M Anderson
Journal:  Nature       Date:  1987 Mar 12-18       Impact factor: 49.962

5.  Seroepidemiology of HTLV-III antibody in Danish homosexual men: prevalence, transmission, and disease outcome.

Authors:  M Melbye; R J Biggar; P Ebbesen; M G Sarngadharan; S H Weiss; R C Gallo; W A Blattner
Journal:  Br Med J (Clin Res Ed)       Date:  1984-09-08

6.  National case-control study of Kaposi's sarcoma and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in homosexual men: Part 1. Epidemiologic results.

Authors:  H W Jaffe; K Choi; P A Thomas; H W Haverkos; D M Auerbach; M E Guinan; M F Rogers; T J Spira; W W Darrow; M A Kramer; S M Friedman; J M Monroe; A E Friedman-Kien; L J Laubenstein; M Marmor; B Safai; S K Dritz; S J Crispi; S L Fannin; J P Orkwis; A Kelter; W R Rushing; S B Thacker; J W Curran
Journal:  Ann Intern Med       Date:  1983-08       Impact factor: 25.391

7.  Transmission of human T-cell lymphotropic virus type III (HTLV-III) by artificial insemination by donor.

Authors:  G J Stewart; J P Tyler; A L Cunningham; J A Barr; G L Driscoll; J Gold; B J Lamont
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  1985-09-14       Impact factor: 79.321

8.  Risk factors for seroconversion to human immunodeficiency virus among male homosexuals. Results from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

Authors:  L A Kingsley; R Detels; R Kaslow; B F Polk; C R Rinaldo; J Chmiel; K Detre; S F Kelsey; N Odaka; D Ostrow
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  1987-02-14       Impact factor: 79.321

9.  A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS.

Authors:  R M Anderson; G F Medley; R M May; A M Johnson
Journal:  IMA J Math Appl Med Biol       Date:  1986

10.  Risk factors for AIDS and HIV seropositivity in homosexual men.

Authors:  A R Moss; D Osmond; P Bacchetti; J C Chermann; F Barre-Sinoussi; J Carlson
Journal:  Am J Epidemiol       Date:  1987-06       Impact factor: 4.897
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  20 in total

1.  Polynomial epidemics and clustering in contact networks.

Authors:  Balázs Szendroi; Gábor Csányi
Journal:  Proc Biol Sci       Date:  2004-08-07       Impact factor: 5.349

2.  Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics.

Authors:  Gerardo Chowell; Cécile Viboud; Lone Simonsen; Seyed M Moghadas
Journal:  J R Soc Interface       Date:  2016-10       Impact factor: 4.118

3.  The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates.

Authors:  Gerardo Chowell; Cécile Viboud; James M Hyman; Lone Simonsen
Journal:  PLoS Curr       Date:  2015-01-21

4.  Preferential attachment in sexual networks.

Authors:  Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio; Ake Svensson; Fredrik Liljeros
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2007-06-19       Impact factor: 11.205

Review 5.  Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review.

Authors:  Gerardo Chowell; Lisa Sattenspiel; Shweta Bansal; Cécile Viboud
Journal:  Phys Life Rev       Date:  2016-07-11       Impact factor: 11.025

6.  Frailty effects in networks: comparison and identification of individual heterogeneity versus preferential attachment in evolving networks.

Authors:  Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio; Taral Guldahl Seierstad; Odd O Aalen
Journal:  J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat       Date:  2011-03       Impact factor: 1.864

7.  Transmission network parameters estimated from HIV sequences for a nationwide epidemic.

Authors:  Andrew J Leigh Brown; Samantha J Lycett; Lucy Weinert; Gareth J Hughes; Esther Fearnhill; David T Dunn
Journal:  J Infect Dis       Date:  2011-09-15       Impact factor: 5.226

8.  Strong propensity for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Vietnam: behavioural data and sexual network modelling.

Authors:  Linus Bengtsson; Xin Lu; Fredrik Liljeros; Hoang Huy Thanh; Anna Thorson
Journal:  BMJ Open       Date:  2014-01-15       Impact factor: 2.692

9.  A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks.

Authors:  Cécile Viboud; Lone Simonsen; Gerardo Chowell
Journal:  Epidemics       Date:  2016-02-01       Impact factor: 4.396

10.  Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

Authors:  Daozhou Gao; Yijun Lou; Daihai He; Travis C Porco; Yang Kuang; Gerardo Chowell; Shigui Ruan
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2016-06-17       Impact factor: 4.379
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