Modeling senescence changes of the pubic symphysis in historic Italian populations: a comparison of the Rostock and forensic approaches to aging using transition analysis.

Age-related anatomical changes to the surface of the pubic symphysis are well-documented in the literature. However, aligning these morphological changes with chronological age has proven problematic, often resulting in biased age estimates. Statistical modeling provides an avenue for forensic anthropologists and bioarchaeologists to increase the accuracy of traditional aging methods. Locating appropriate samples to use as a basis for modeling age estimations can be challenging due to differing sample age distributions and potentially varying patterns of senescence. We compared two approaches, Rostock and Forensic, coupled with a Bayesian methodology, to address these issues. Transition analysis was run specific to each method (which differ by sample selection). A Gompertz model was derived from an informative prior that yielded the mortality and senescence parameters for constructing highest posterior density ranges, i.e., coverages, which are analogous to age ranges. These age ranges were generated from both approaches and are presented as reference tables useful for historic male and female Italian samples. The age ranges produced from each approach were tested on an historic Italian sample, using cumulative binomial tests. These two approaches performed similarly, with the Forensic approach showing a slight advantage. However, the Forensic approach is unable to identify varying senescence patterns between populations, thus preference for one approach over the other will depend on research design. Finally, we demonstrate that while populations exhibit similar morphological changes with advancing age, there are no significant sex differences in these samples, and the timing of these changes varies from population to population.