Recent trends in global emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons: reflecting on the 2007 adjustments to the Montreal Protocol.

Global-scale atmospheric measurements are used to investigate the effectiveness of recent adjustments to production and consumption controls on hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) and to assess recent projections of large increases in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and emission. The results show that aggregate global HCFC emissions did not increase appreciably during 2007-2012 and suggest that the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol played a role in limiting HCFC emissions well in advance of the 2013 cap on global production. HCFC emissions varied between 27 and 29 kt CFC-11-equivalent (eq)/y or 0.76 and 0.79 GtCO2-eq/y during this period. Despite slower than projected increases in aggregate HCFC emissions since 2007, total emissions of HFCs used as substitutes for HCFCs and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have not increased more rapidly than rates projected [Velders, G. J. M.; Fahey, D. W.; Daniel, J. S.; McFarland, M.; Andersen, S. O. The Large Contribution of Projected HFC Emissions to Future Climate Forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2009, 106, 10949-10954] for 2007-2012. HFC global emission magnitudes related to this substitution totaled 0.51 (-0.03, +0.04) GtCO2-eq/y in 2012, a magnitude about two times larger than emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for these HFCs. Assuming accurate reporting to the UNFCCC, the results imply that developing countries (non-Annex I Parties) not reporting to the UNFCCC now account for nearly 50% of global HFC emissions used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Global HFC emissions (as CO2-eq) from ODS substitution can be attributed approximately equally to mobile air conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the sum of all other applications.