Combining information from ancestors and personal experiences to predict individual differences in developmental trajectories.

A persistent question in biology is how information from ancestors combines with personal experiences over the lifetime to affect the developmental trajectories of phenotypic traits. We address this question by modeling individual differences in behavioral developmental trajectories on the basis of two assumptions: (1) differences among individuals in the behavior expressed at birth or hatching are based on information from their ancestors (via genes, epigenes, and prenatal maternal effects), and (2) information from ancestors is combined with information from personal experiences over ontogeny via Bayesian updating. The model predicts relationships between the means and the variability of the behavior expressed by neonates and the subsequent developmental trajectories of their behavior when every individual is reared under the same environmental conditions. Several predictions of the model are supported by data from previous studies of behavioral development, for example, that the temporal stability of personality will increase with age and that the intercepts and slopes of developmental trajectories for boldness will be negatively correlated across individuals or genotypes when subjects are raised in safe environments. We describe how other specific predictions of the model can be used to test the hypothesis that information from ancestors and information from personal experiences are combined via nonadditive, Bayesian-like processes.