A Bayesian Multivariate Receptor Model for Estimating Source Contributions to Particulate Matter Pollution using National Databases.

Time series studies have suggested that air pollution can negatively impact health. These studies have typically focused on the total mass of fine particulate matter air pollution or the individual chemical constituents that contribute to it, and not source-specific contributions to air pollution. Source-specific contribution estimates are useful from a regulatory standpoint by allowing regulators to focus limited resources on reducing emissions from sources that are major contributors to air pollution and are also desired when estimating source-specific health effects. However, researchers often lack direct observations of the emissions at the source level. We propose a Bayesian multivariate receptor model to infer information about source contributions from ambient air pollution measurements. The proposed model incorporates information from national databases containing data on both the composition of source emissions and the amount of emissions from known sources of air pollution. The proposed model is used to perform source apportionment analyses for two distinct locations in the United States (Boston, Massachusetts and Phoenix, Arizona). Our results mirror previous source apportionment analyses that did not utilize the information from national databases and provide additional information about uncertainty that is relevant to the estimation of health effects.