Fausto Biancari1, Tatu Juvonen2, Francesco Onorati3, Giuseppe Faggian3, Jouni Heikkinen2, Juhani Airaksinen4, Giovanni Mariscalco5. 1. Department of Surgery, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland. Electronic address: faustobiancari@yahoo.it. 2. Department of Surgery, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland. 3. Division of Cardiac Surgery, University of Verona Medical School, Verona, Italy. 4. Heart Center, Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland. 5. Cardiac Surgery Unit, Varese University Hospital, Varese, Italy.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the EuroSCORE II (ESII) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) scores in surgical (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). DESIGN: Systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis. SETTING: University hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Studies reporting data on the performance of ESII and STS scores in patients undergoing SAVR or TAVR. INTERVENTIONS: SAVR or TAVR. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Ten studies validated these scores in 13,856 patients who underwent either TAVR or SAVR. Operative mortality was 5.9% (SAVR 3.1%; TAVR 9.6%). ESII-expected mortality was 5.1% (O/E ratio: 1.15, SAVR, O/E ratio 0.94; TAVR, O/E ratio 1.23) and STS-expected mortality was 6.3% (O/E ratio: 0.94, SAVR, O/E ratio 0.84; TAVR, O/E ratio 1.13). The area under the ROC curve for ESII was 0.70 and for STS was 0.70 (SAVR patients: 0.73 for ESII and 0.75 for STS; TAVR patients; 0.66 for ESII and 0.63 for STS). The difference between observed/expected mortality was not significant for ESII (Peto's OR 0.99, p = 0.88) and was significant for STS (Peto's OR 0.86, p = 0.008). ESII (Peto's OR 1.35, p<0.00001) and STS (Peto's OR 1.23, p<0.00001) significantly underestimated the mortality risk in TAVR patients. The STS (Peto's OR 0.74, p<0.0001) and, to a lesser extent, the ESII (Peto's OR 0.86, p = 0.0.04) overestimated the mortality risk in SAVR patients. CONCLUSIONS: The ESII and STS scores have good O/E ratios for either TAVR or SAVR patients, but both scores significantly underpredicted the risk of TAVR patients. ESII seemed to be accurate in predicting the risk of SAVR patients.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the EuroSCORE II (ESII) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) scores in surgical (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). DESIGN: Systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis. SETTING: University hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Studies reporting data on the performance of ESII and STS scores in patients undergoing SAVR or TAVR. INTERVENTIONS: SAVR or TAVR. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Ten studies validated these scores in 13,856 patients who underwent either TAVR or SAVR. Operative mortality was 5.9% (SAVR 3.1%; TAVR 9.6%). ESII-expected mortality was 5.1% (O/E ratio: 1.15, SAVR, O/E ratio 0.94; TAVR, O/E ratio 1.23) and STS-expected mortality was 6.3% (O/E ratio: 0.94, SAVR, O/E ratio 0.84; TAVR, O/E ratio 1.13). The area under the ROC curve for ESII was 0.70 and for STS was 0.70 (SAVR patients: 0.73 for ESII and 0.75 for STS; TAVR patients; 0.66 for ESII and 0.63 for STS). The difference between observed/expected mortality was not significant for ESII (Peto's OR 0.99, p = 0.88) and was significant for STS (Peto's OR 0.86, p = 0.008). ESII (Peto's OR 1.35, p<0.00001) and STS (Peto's OR 1.23, p<0.00001) significantly underestimated the mortality risk in TAVR patients. The STS (Peto's OR 0.74, p<0.0001) and, to a lesser extent, the ESII (Peto's OR 0.86, p = 0.0.04) overestimated the mortality risk in SAVR patients. CONCLUSIONS: The ESII and STS scores have good O/E ratios for either TAVR or SAVR patients, but both scores significantly underpredicted the risk of TAVR patients. ESII seemed to be accurate in predicting the risk of SAVR patients.
Authors: Francesco Onorati; Augusto D'Onofrio; Fausto Biancari; Stefano Salizzoni; Marisa De Feo; Marco Agrifoglio; Giovanni Mariscalco; Vincenzo Lucchetti; Antonio Messina; Francesco Musumeci; Giuseppe Santarpino; Giampiero Esposito; Francesco Santini; Paolo Magagna; Cesare Beghi; Marco Aiello; Ester Dalla Ratta; Carlo Savini; Giovanni Troise; Mauro Cassese; Theodor Fischlein; Mattia Glauber; Giancarlo Passerone; Giuseppe Punta; Tatu Juvonen; Ottavio Alfieri; Davide Gabbieri; Domenico Mangino; Andrea Agostinelli; Ugolino Livi; Omar Di Gregorio; Alessandro Minati; Mauro Rinaldi; Gino Gerosa; Giuseppe Faggian Journal: Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg Date: 2016-03-14
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