Siddharth Chandra1, Eva Kassens-Noor. 1. Asian Studies Center, 301 International Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA. chandr45@msu.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The 1918-19 'Spanish' Influenza was the most devastating pandemic in recent history, with estimates of global mortality ranging from 20 to 50 million. The focal point of the pandemic was India, with an estimated death toll of between 10 and 20 million. We will characterize the pattern of spread, mortality, and evolution of the 1918 influenza across India using spatial or temporal data. METHODS: This study estimates weekly deaths in 213 districts from nine provinces in India. We compute statistical measures of the severity, speed, and duration of the virulent autumn wave of the disease as it evolved and diffused throughout India. These estimates create a clear picture of the spread of the pandemic across India. RESULTS: Analysis of the timing and mortality patterns of the disease reveals a striking pattern of speed deceleration, reduction in peak-week mortality, a prolonging of the epidemic wave, and a decrease in overall virulence of the pandemic over time. CONCLUSIONS: The findings are consistent with a variety of possible causes, including the changing nature of the dominant viral strain and the timing and severity of the monsoon. The results significantly advance our knowledge of this devastating pandemic at its global focal point.
BACKGROUND: The 1918-19 'Spanish' Influenza was the most devastating pandemic in recent history, with estimates of global mortality ranging from 20 to 50 million. The focal point of the pandemic was India, with an estimated death toll of between 10 and 20 million. We will characterize the pattern of spread, mortality, and evolution of the 1918 influenza across India using spatial or temporal data. METHODS: This study estimates weekly deaths in 213 districts from nine provinces in India. We compute statistical measures of the severity, speed, and duration of the virulent autumn wave of the disease as it evolved and diffused throughout India. These estimates create a clear picture of the spread of the pandemic across India. RESULTS: Analysis of the timing and mortality patterns of the disease reveals a striking pattern of speed deceleration, reduction in peak-week mortality, a prolonging of the epidemic wave, and a decrease in overall virulence of the pandemic over time. CONCLUSIONS: The findings are consistent with a variety of possible causes, including the changing nature of the dominant viral strain and the timing and severity of the monsoon. The results significantly advance our knowledge of this devastating pandemic at its global focal point.
Authors: Duygu Balcan; Vittoria Colizza; Bruno Gonçalves; Hao Hu; José J Ramasco; Alessandro Vespignani Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2009-12-14 Impact factor: 11.205
Authors: Jason Phua; Chae-Man Lim; Mohammad Omar Faruq; Khalid Mahmood Khan Nafees; Bin Du; Charles D Gomersall; Lowell Ling; Jigeeshu Vasishtha Divatia; Seyed Mohammad Reza Hashemian; Moritoki Egi; Aidos Konkayev; Mohd Basri Mat-Nor; Gentle Sunder Shrestha; Madiha Hashmi; Jose Emmanuel M Palo; Yaseen M Arabi; Hon Liang Tan; Rohan Dissanayake; Ming-Cheng Chan; Chairat Permpikul; Boonsong Patjanasoontorn; Do Ngoc Son; Masaji Nishimura; Younsuck Koh Journal: J Intensive Care Date: 2021-10-07