J Iparraguirre1. 1. Age UK, Tavis House, 1-6 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9NA, UK.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The historical series of excess winter mortality (EWM) in England and Wales presents a negative trend. Winter fuel payments (WFPs) are the most important benefits for people aged 65 or over directly related to Winter Mortality in the UK. METHODS: This study presents a time series analysis of the direct effect of WFPs on EWM in England and Wales. RESULTS: We find a significant structural break in trend and volatility in the EWM series in England and Wales in 1999-2000. After controlling for a number of covariates, an ARIMA-X model finds that WFPs can account for almost half of the reduction in EWM in England and Wales since 1999/2000. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of the reduction in EWM since 1999/2000 is attributable to WFPs.
BACKGROUND: The historical series of excess winter mortality (EWM) in England and Wales presents a negative trend. Winter fuel payments (WFPs) are the most important benefits for people aged 65 or over directly related to Winter Mortality in the UK. METHODS: This study presents a time series analysis of the direct effect of WFPs on EWM in England and Wales. RESULTS: We find a significant structural break in trend and volatility in the EWM series in England and Wales in 1999-2000. After controlling for a number of covariates, an ARIMA-X model finds that WFPs can account for almost half of the reduction in EWM in England and Wales since 1999/2000. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of the reduction in EWM since 1999/2000 is attributable to WFPs.
Authors: Juli Carrere; Francesc Belvis; Andrés Peralta; Marc Marí-Dell'Olmo; María José López; Joan Benach; Ana M Novoa Journal: J Urban Health Date: 2022-05-27 Impact factor: 5.801
Authors: Rachel Loopstra; Martin McKee; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; David Taylor-Robinson; Ben Barr; David Stuckler Journal: J R Soc Med Date: 2016-03 Impact factor: 5.344