Predictability rather than amplitude of temperature fluctuations determines stress resistance in a natural population of Drosophila simulans.

The adaptability of organisms to novel environmental conditions depends on the amount of genetic variance present in the population as well as on the ability of individuals to adjust their phenotype through phenotypic plasticity. Here, we investigated the phenotypic plasticity induced by a single generation's exposure to three different temperature regimes with respect to several life-history and stress-resistance traits in a natural population of Drosophila simulans. We studied a constant as well as a predictably and an unpredictably fluctuating temperature regime. We found high levels of phenotypic plasticity among all temperature regimes, suggesting a strong influence of both temperature fluctuations and their predictability. Increased heat tolerance was observed for flies developed in both types of fluctuating thermal environments compared with flies developed in a constant environment. We suggest that this was due to beneficial hardening when developing in either fluctuating temperature environment. To our surprise, flies that developed in constant and predictably changing environments were similar to each other in most traits when compared to flies from the unpredictably fluctuating environment. The unpredictably changing thermal environment imposed the most stressful condition, resulting in the lowest performance for stress-related traits, even though the absolute temperature changes never exceeded that of the predictably fluctuating environment. The overall decreased stress resistance of flies in the unpredictably fluctuating environment may be the consequence of maladaptive phenotypic plasticity in this setting, indicating that the adaptive value of plasticity depends on the predictability of the environment.