Through a glass darkly: economics and personalised medicine.

Personalised medicine and pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategies will be of increasing importance in the future, both in terms of healthcare provision and evaluation. It is well recognised that significant variability exists in the response of patients to drugs resulting from genetic or biological variations; however, we are only now gradually becoming aware of the complexities involved. Enormous variability occurs in the risk-benefit ratio that will be experienced by each individual patient as a consequence of their overall genetic make-up. Although not a panacea, enhanced scientific knowledge of the genetic basis for such variability offers the potential for a more 'tailored' approach to prescribing in the future, making it more closely attuned to the needs of the individual patient. Such 'personalised' medicine has the potential to revolutionise care provision in a manner that provides a range of challenges to current structures and processes of 'conventional' healthcare delivery. The aim of this paper is to outline such challenges and analyse potential ways in which they may be addressed in the future. It provides non-expert readers with a non-technical case study of the complexities inherent in the evaluation of a pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategy from a health economic perspective. Wherever possible, technical issues have been minimised; however, references are provided for readers who wish to enhance their knowledge of the pharmacological basis of the case study of cytochrome P450 test-guided treatment. The case study aims simply to illustrate the approach and difficulties encountered in the health economic evaluation of complex pharmacogenetic technologies. Such technologies present a range of new and complex issues which have crucial implications for health economists attempting to obtain an accurate assessment of the 'value' of the technology in clinical practice in an array of patient subgroups. Personalised medicine is the future and this paper highlights how pharmaceutical manufacturers, clinicians, regulators and other stakeholders must all play their part in the inevitable and accelerating move into this complex and uncertain future.