Carbon dioxide emissions and change in prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the United States: an ecological study.

Recent studies suggest that increasing levels of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), may influence weight gain and thus may play a role in rising trends in obesity and diabetes. We conducted an ecological study to examine the associations between CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and changes in the prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the United States. County-level data on CO2 emissions, prevalence of obesity and diagnosed diabetes, other sociodemographic factors and neighborhood characteristics related to urbanicity, and fine particles (PM2.5) between 2004 and 2008 were obtained from the Vulcan Project, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and American Community Survey. Linear mixed effect modeling of 3019 counties for the associations between average CO2 emissions and changes in diabetes and obesity prevalence between 2004 and 2008 was performed. The average obesity and diabetes prevalence increased between 2004 and 2008 by 3.65% (SD: 1.88%) and 1.65% (SD: 1.70%), respectively. A marginally significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in obesity prevalence was found with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, indicators of urbanicity and spatial autocorrelation (p-trend=0.06). The association became weaker and nonsignificant with further adjustment for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.17). There was a significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence before controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.05) but the association became null after controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.49), suggesting that PM2.5 is a critical confounder in the association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence. This study does not support the hypothesis that CO2 emissions, a leading driver of climate change, may be linked to increasing trends in obesity and diabetes, though there was an indication of possible link between CO2 and obesity.