Rotavirus gastroenteritis in India, 2011-2013: revised estimates of disease burden and potential impact of vaccines.

While improvements in oral rehydration use and access to healthcare have contributed to impressive gains in child survival, diarrheal diseases remain the second most important cause of child mortality in India. Pathogen specific disease rates, while key to deciding on the utility of specific public health interventions such as vaccines, are extremely difficult to obtain in developing country settings with less than optimal health access, diagnostic services and information systems. This study combined disease burden within five cohorts of infants followed up for diarrheal morbidity with data from the nationally representative Indian Rotavirus Surveillance Network and applies rates of rotavirus related events to UNICEF birth and mortality estimates for India. These estimates, while limited by the lack of data from nationally representative population based studies, use methods consistent with those employed by the World Health Organization Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group. We estimate that 11.37 million episodes of rotavirus gastroenteritis occur each year in India, requiring 3.27 million outpatient visits and 872,000 inpatient admissions when health access is unconstrained, resulting in a need for Rs. 10.37 billion each year in direct costs. An estimated 78,000 rotavirus-associated deaths occur annually of which 59,000 occur in the first 2 years of life. Introduction of a rotavirus vaccine of similar efficacy to the Rotavac in the national immunization program would result in 686,277 fewer outpatient visits, 291,756 fewer hospitalizations and 26,985 fewer deaths each year in India, assuming no indirect effects for the vaccine.