Surrogate measures for providing high frequency estimates of total phosphorus concentrations in urban watersheds.

Until robust in situ sensors for total phosphorus (TP) are developed, continuous water quality measurements have the potential to be used as surrogates for generating high frequency estimates. Their use has widespread implications for water quality monitoring programmes considering that TP, in particular, is generally recognised as the limiting factor in the process of eutrophication. Surrogate measures for TP concentration, such as turbidity, have proved useful within natural and agricultural contexts, but their predictive capability for urban watersheds is considered more difficult, due to the different sources of TP, though a strict relationship with turbidity/suspended matter has been clearly described even for these environments. In this context, we investigated this still unresolved problem for high frequency estimation of TP concentration in urban environments by monitoring a medium-sized (71 km(2)) urban watershed (Lambro River watershed, north Italy) in which we detected 60 active combined sewer overflows, and an its natural sub-basin for comparison. We found two different relationships between turbidity and TP concentration in the investigated urban watershed that differently describe the prevalence of TP from point sources (domestic wastewaters) or diffuse origin (surface runoff). In this regard, we first characterise the prevailing sources of TP by using a marker for detecting domestic wastewater contamination (caffeine), then we describe the mutual relationships amongst the continuously monitored variables (in our case the occurrence of the First Flush and the clockwise turbidity/discharge hysteresis). Afterwards we discriminate, by observing variables that are continuously monitored (in our case, the discharge and the turbidity), amongst the continuous surrogate records according to their sources. In conclusion, we are able to apply the relevant turbidity/TP regression equations to each turbidity record and, thus, estimate the respective TP concentrations with high frequency. If traditional grab sampling techniques had been employed, the contributions of point sources (up to 34% across 237 monitored days) to the total estimated loads would not have been correctly evaluated, whilst the high frequency monitoring is able to catch the dynamics that occur over time scales of a few hours. We conclude that the reasonable uncertainty obtained in this study can be achieved in other urban watersheds, but further studies are required for watersheds of differing sizes and degrees of urbanisation.