Jing Zhang1, Tian Tian Li2, Jian Guo Tan3, Cun Rui Huang4, Hai Dong Kan5. 1. School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. 2. Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China. 3. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Institute, SMB, Shanghai 200030, China. 4. School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia. 5. School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China; Research Institute for the Changing Global Environment and Fudan Tyndall Centre, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To study the relation between temperature and mortality by estimating the temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. METHODS: Data of daily mortality, weather and air pollution in the three cities were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model was established and used in analyzing the effects of temperature on mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. RESULTS: The association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, with an increased death risk of both hot and cold temperature in these cities. The effects of cold temperature on health lasted longer than those of hot temperature. The projected temperature-related mortality increased with the decreased cold-related mortality. The mortality was higher in Guangzhou than in Beijing and Shanghai. CONCLUSION: The impact of temperature on health varies in the 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.
OBJECTIVE: To study the relation between temperature and mortality by estimating the temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. METHODS: Data of daily mortality, weather and air pollution in the three cities were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model was established and used in analyzing the effects of temperature on mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. RESULTS: The association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, with an increased death risk of both hot and cold temperature in these cities. The effects of cold temperature on health lasted longer than those of hot temperature. The projected temperature-related mortality increased with the decreased cold-related mortality. The mortality was higher in Guangzhou than in Beijing and Shanghai. CONCLUSION: The impact of temperature on health varies in the 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.