Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in haemophiliacs: long-term prognostic significance of the HIV serologic pattern.

To identify markers of prognostic value in the course of HIV disease, immunologic parameters and profiles of HIV antibodies and antigen were studied in 60 haemophiliacs. The 43 HIV-seropositive subjects were followed prospectively over a 4 year period with a retrospective analysis as well of their frozen plasma for HIV markers. This group had a significant decrease in number of helper/inducer T lymphocytes as compared with 17 HIV seronegative subjects. The degree of changes correlated with the stage of disease, with the most severe depletion of CD4 cells in those who developed AIDS. Counts of B cells and platelets were also lower in HIV-infected haemophiliacs. Ten out of 12 AIDS patients had undetectable antibodies to HIV p24 antigen; low levels of p24 antibody were also seen in six out of 15 subjects with lymphadenopathy (CDC stage III), but in only two out of 16 asymptomatic subjects (CDC stage II). Sustained HIV p24 antigenaemia (greater than 30 pg/ml) was seen in 10 AIDS patients, in five subjects with lymphadenopathy and in two asymptomatic haemophiliacs. Initial HIV serologic profiles, obtained when all patients were asymptomatic, were highly predictive for progression of the HIV infection: the initial pattern of low anti-p24 antibody and positive p24 antigenaemia conferred the worst prognosis, with all patients in this group developing ARC or AIDS within 36 months, whereas an initial high level of anti-p24 without p24 antigenaemia was associated with relatively the best prognosis. Of such subjects, 58% have remained clinically asymptomatic after 48 months of the study (P less than 0.00001). The serologic profile of HIV antibody pattern and HIV antigen in haemophilic patients thus already provides important prognostic information at an early stage of HIV infection.