OBJECTIVE: This paper examines the numbers of people with dementia who could be diagnosed and the likely cost-effectiveness of a one-off screen for dementia for people aged 75 years in England and Wales. METHODS: The study uses static decision modelling to compare a one-off screen for dementia with a no-screen scenario. Estimates for the model were drawn from systematic reviews, high-quality studies and government and administrative sources. A panel of experts also advised the study. RESULTS: An estimated 3514 people could be diagnosed as a result of screening, 2152 of whom would otherwise never receive a diagnosis. The study identified societal economic impact of between £3,649,794 (net costs) and £4,685,768 (net savings), depending on assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that screening could be cost-effective, especially as treatments and social care interventions become more effective and if diagnosis by current routes remains low or occurs later than is optimal. This study was, however, limited by available evidence and a range of quality of life benefits, cost savings and potential harms could not be quantified. It was also beyond the scope of this study to consider dynamic factors such as repeat screening, mortality, disease trajectories or trends in the numbers of people with dementia. A larger study would be needed for this, involving more complex and innovative approaches to generating estimates for modelling. We did not compare population screening for people aged 75 years to other methods for increasing diagnosis rates.
OBJECTIVE: This paper examines the numbers of people with dementia who could be diagnosed and the likely cost-effectiveness of a one-off screen for dementia for people aged 75 years in England and Wales. METHODS: The study uses static decision modelling to compare a one-off screen for dementia with a no-screen scenario. Estimates for the model were drawn from systematic reviews, high-quality studies and government and administrative sources. A panel of experts also advised the study. RESULTS: An estimated 3514 people could be diagnosed as a result of screening, 2152 of whom would otherwise never receive a diagnosis. The study identified societal economic impact of between £3,649,794 (net costs) and £4,685,768 (net savings), depending on assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that screening could be cost-effective, especially as treatments and social care interventions become more effective and if diagnosis by current routes remains low or occurs later than is optimal. This study was, however, limited by available evidence and a range of quality of life benefits, cost savings and potential harms could not be quantified. It was also beyond the scope of this study to consider dynamic factors such as repeat screening, mortality, disease trajectories or trends in the numbers of people with dementia. A larger study would be needed for this, involving more complex and innovative approaches to generating estimates for modelling. We did not compare population screening for people aged 75 years to other methods for increasing diagnosis rates.