Maryna Strokal1, He Yang2, Yinchen Zhang2, Carolien Kroeze3, Lili Li4, Shengji Luan4, Huanzhi Wang4, Shunshun Yang4, Yisheng Zhang4. 1. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands. Electronic address: maryna.strokal@wur.nl. 2. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands. 3. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands; School of Science, Faculty of Management, Science & Technology, Open University of the Netherland, Valkenburgerweg 177, 6419 AT Heerlen, The Netherlands. 4. Peking University, University Town, Nanshan District, Shenzhen 518055, PR China.
Abstract
We analyzed the potential for eutrophication in major seas around China: the Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea and South China Sea. We model the riverine inputs of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) to coastal seas from 1970 to 2050. Between 1970 and 2000 dissolved N and P inputs to the three seas increased by a factor of 2-5. In contrast, inputs of particulate N and P and dissolved Si, decreased due to damming of rivers. Between 2000 and 2050, the total N and P inputs increase further by 30-200%. Sewage is the dominant source of dissolved N and P in the Bohai Gulf, while agriculture is the primary source in the other seas. In the future, the ratios of Si to N and P decrease, which increases the risk of harmful algal blooms. Sewage treatment may reduce this risk in the Bohai Gulf, and agricultural management in the other seas.
We analyzed the potential for eutrophication in major seas around China: the Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea and South China Sea. We model the riverine inputs of n class="Chemical">nitrogen (pan> class="Chemical">N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) to coastal seas from 1970 to 2050. Between 1970 and 2000 dissolved N and P inputs to the three seas increased by a factor of 2-5. In contrast, inputs of particulate N and P and dissolved Si, decreased due to damming of rivers. Between 2000 and 2050, the total N and P inputs increase further by 30-200%. Sewage is the dominant source of dissolved N and P in the Bohai Gulf, while agriculture is the primary source in the other seas. In the future, the ratios of Si to N and P decrease, which increases the risk of harmful algal blooms. Sewage treatment may reduce this risk in the Bohai Gulf, and agricultural management in the other seas.
Authors: Colin E Studds; Bruce E Kendall; Nicholas J Murray; Howard B Wilson; Danny I Rogers; Robert S Clemens; Ken Gosbell; Chris J Hassell; Rosalind Jessop; David S Melville; David A Milton; Clive D T Minton; Hugh P Possingham; Adrian C Riegen; Phil Straw; Eric J Woehler; Richard A Fuller Journal: Nat Commun Date: 2017-04-13 Impact factor: 14.919