SUMMARY: Based on an extensive cohort study over 25 years, the present study supports the assumption that major osteoporotic fractures can be reasonably predicted from hip fracture rates. INTRODUCTION: The construct for FRAX models depends on algorithms to adjust for double counting of fracture outcomes in some models and in others, to estimate the incidence of a major fracture from hip fracture rates. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of these algorithms in a large prospective cohort. METHODS: The incidence of hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and humerus fracture was determined in the prospective and ongoing population-based Reykjavik Study with follow up of 257,001 person-years. The incidence of a first major fracture was compared with the correction factors used in FRAX to adjust the incidence of several fracture outcomes for double counting. In addition, the incidence of a major osteoporotic fracture estimated from the Icelandic hip fracture rates was compared with the Malmo ratios used in FRAX. RESULTS: The adjustments necessary to account for multiple fracture outcomes were similar to those previously derived from Sweden. Additionally, incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture was similar to that derived for FRAX models. CONCLUSION: The findings of the present study support the algorithms used in FRAX to estimate the incidence of a first major fracture and the predictive value of hip fracture for other major fractures.
SUMMARY: Based on an extensive cohort study over 25 years, the present study supports the assumption that major osteoporotic fractures can be reasonably predicted from hip fracture rates. INTRODUCTION: The construct for FRAX models depends on algorithms to adjust for double counting of fracture outcomes in some models and in others, to estimate the incidence of a major fracture from hip fracture rates. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of these algorithms in a large prospective cohort. METHODS: The incidence of hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and humerus fracture was determined in the prospective and ongoing population-based Reykjavik Study with follow up of 257,001 person-years. The incidence of a first major fracture was compared with the correction factors used in FRAX to adjust the incidence of several fracture outcomes for double counting. In addition, the incidence of a major osteoporotic fracture estimated from the Icelandic hip fracture rates was compared with the Malmo ratios used in FRAX. RESULTS: The adjustments necessary to account for multiple fracture outcomes were similar to those previously derived from Sweden. Additionally, incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture was similar to that derived for FRAX models. CONCLUSION: The findings of the present study support the algorithms used in FRAX to estimate the incidence of a first major fracture and the predictive value of hip fracture for other major fractures.
Authors: J A Kanis; O Johnell; A Oden; I Sembo; I Redlund-Johnell; A Dawson; C De Laet; B Jonsson Journal: Osteoporos Int Date: 2000 Impact factor: 4.507
Authors: Olga Lesnyak; Olga Ershova; Ksenia Belova; Elena Gladkova; Olga Sinitsina; Olga Ganert; Marina Romanova; Vitalij Khodirev; Helena Johansson; Eugene McCloskey; John A Kanis Journal: Arch Osteoporos Date: 2012-05-09 Impact factor: 2.617
Authors: J T Schousboe; M L Paudel; B C Taylor; B A Virnig; J A Cauley; J R Curtis; K E Ensrud Journal: Osteoporos Int Date: 2012-12-04 Impact factor: 4.507
Authors: K Siggeirsdottir; T Aspelund; B Y Jonsson; B Mogensen; E F Gudmundsson; V Gudnason; G Sigurdsson Journal: Osteoporos Int Date: 2013-07-02 Impact factor: 4.507
Authors: Anna Lam; William D Leslie; Lisa M Lix; Marina Yogendran; Suzanne N Morin; Sumit R Majumdar Journal: J Bone Miner Res Date: 2014 Impact factor: 6.741
Authors: J A Kanis; D Hans; C Cooper; S Baim; J P Bilezikian; N Binkley; J A Cauley; J E Compston; B Dawson-Hughes; G El-Hajj Fuleihan; H Johansson; W D Leslie; E M Lewiecki; M Luckey; A Oden; S E Papapoulos; C Poiana; R Rizzoli; D A Wahl; E V McCloskey Journal: Osteoporos Int Date: 2011-07-21 Impact factor: 4.507
Authors: John A Kanis; Nicholas C Harvey; Helena Johansson; Anders Odén; Eugene V McCloskey; William D Leslie Journal: J Clin Densitom Date: 2017-07-14 Impact factor: 2.617
Authors: O Lesnyak; S Ismailov; M Shakirova; N Alikhanova; A Zakroyeva; L Abboskhujaeva; H Johansson; N C Harvey; E McCloskey; J A Kanis Journal: Arch Osteoporos Date: 2020-07-29 Impact factor: 2.617
Authors: M Kebaetse; S Nkhwa; M Mogodi; J Masunge; Y P Gureja; M Ramabu; T Mmopelwa; I Sharif; A Orford; N C Harvey; E V McCloskey; J A Cauley; J A Kanis; H Johansson Journal: Arch Osteoporos Date: 2021-06-07 Impact factor: 2.617
Authors: Corinne Klop; Paco M J Welsing; Hubert G M Leufkens; Petra J M Elders; Jetty A Overbeek; Joop P van den Bergh; Johannes W J Bijlsma; Frank de Vries Journal: PLoS One Date: 2015-12-03 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: V V Povoroznyuk; N V Grygorieva; J A Kanis; McCloskey Ev; H Johansson; N C Harvey; M O Korzh; S S Strafun; V M Vaida; F V Klymovytsky; R O Vlasenko; V S Forosenko Journal: Arch Osteoporos Date: 2017-05-31 Impact factor: 2.617
Authors: O Lesnyak; S Sahakyan; A Zakroyeva; J P Bilezikian; N Hutchings; V Babalyan; R Galstyan; A Lebedev; H Johansson; N C Harvey; E McCloskey; John A Kanis Journal: Arch Osteoporos Date: 2017-11-07 Impact factor: 2.617