Anna Grimsrud1, Suna Balkan, Esther C Casas, Johnny Lujan, Gilles Van Cutsem, Elisabeth Poulet, Landon Myer, Mar Pujades-Rodriguez. 1. *Division of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health & Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; †Médecins Sans Frontières, Paris, France; ‡Médecins Sans Frontières, Amsterdam, Netherlands; §Médecins Sans Frontières, Geneva, Switzerland; ‖Médecins Sans Frontières, Cape Town, South Africa; ¶Epicentre, Paris, France; #Epicentre-Médecins Sans Frontières, Paris, France; and **University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the evolution of program outcomes associated with rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We describe temporal trends and assess associations with mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV cohorts from 8 countries. DESIGN: Multicohort study using electronic health records. METHODS: Analysis included adults in 25 Médecins Sans Frontières-supported programs initiating ART between 2001 and 2011. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe time to death or LTFU and proportional hazards models to assess associations with individual and program factors. RESULTS: ART programs (n = 132,334, median age 35 years, 61% female) expanded rapidly. Whereas 36-month mortality decreased from 22% to 9% over 5 years (≤2003-2008), LTFU increased from 11% to 21%. Hazard ratios (HR) of early (0-12 months) and late (12-72 months) LTFU increased over time, from 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83 to 1.43] and 1.04 (95% CI: 0.84 to 1.28) in 2004 to 3.29 (95% CI: 2.42 to 4.46) and 6.86 (95% CI: 4.94 to 9.53) in 2011, compared with 2001-2003. Rate of program expansion was strongly associated with increased early and late LTFU, adjusted HR (aHR) = 2.31 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.01) and HR = 2.29 (95% CI: 1.76 to 2.99), respectively, for ≥125 vs. 0-24 patients per month. Larger program size was associated with decreased early mortality (aHR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.77 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients) and increased early LTFU (aHR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.04 to 3.04 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients). CONCLUSIONS: As ART expands in resource-limited settings, challenges remain in improving access to ART and preventing program attrition. There is an urgent need for novel and sustainable models of care to increase long-term retention of patients.
OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the evolution of program outcomes associated with rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We describe temporal trends and assess associations with mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV cohorts from 8 countries. DESIGN: Multicohort study using electronic health records. METHODS: Analysis included adults in 25 Médecins Sans Frontières-supported programs initiating ART between 2001 and 2011. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe time to death or LTFU and proportional hazards models to assess associations with individual and program factors. RESULTS: ART programs (n = 132,334, median age 35 years, 61% female) expanded rapidly. Whereas 36-month mortality decreased from 22% to 9% over 5 years (≤2003-2008), LTFU increased from 11% to 21%. Hazard ratios (HR) of early (0-12 months) and late (12-72 months) LTFU increased over time, from 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83 to 1.43] and 1.04 (95% CI: 0.84 to 1.28) in 2004 to 3.29 (95% CI: 2.42 to 4.46) and 6.86 (95% CI: 4.94 to 9.53) in 2011, compared with 2001-2003. Rate of program expansion was strongly associated with increased early and late LTFU, adjusted HR (aHR) = 2.31 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.01) and HR = 2.29 (95% CI: 1.76 to 2.99), respectively, for ≥125 vs. 0-24 patients per month. Larger program size was associated with decreased early mortality (aHR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.77 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients) and increased early LTFU (aHR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.04 to 3.04 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients). CONCLUSIONS: As ART expands in resource-limited settings, challenges remain in improving access to ART and preventing program attrition. There is an urgent need for novel and sustainable models of care to increase long-term retention of patients.
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