The natural history of HIV infection in intravenous drug users: risk of disease progression in a cohort of seroconverters.

A multicentre cohort study was carried out to estimate the incidence of AIDS and HIV-related conditions in newly infected intravenous drug users (IVDU). The enrollment criteria included the identification of the seroconversion time. Two hundred and five subjects entered the study, and were followed for a mean of 26 months. Twelve subjects developed clinical AIDS over a 4-year period. The actuarial incidence of AIDS estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival technique was 17.8% by 4 years since seroconversion. The risk of developing AIDS increased significantly after 24 months from seroconversion. Relatively small figures accounted for the lack of statistical association between the risk factors investigated and the disease status.