Establishment and optimization of a regionally applicable maize gene-flow model.

Because of the rapid development of transgenic maize, the potential effect of transgene flow on seed purity has become a major concern in public and scientific communities. Setting a proper isolation distance in field experiments and seed production is a possible solution to meet seed-quality standards and ensure adventitious contamination of products is below a specific threshold. By using a Gaussian plume model as basis and data recorded by meteorological stations as input, we have established a simple regionally applicable maize gene-flow model for prediction of the maximum threshold distances (MTD) at which gene-flow frequency is equal to or lower than a threshold value of 1 or 0.1 % (MTD1%, MTD0.1%). After optimization of the model variables, simulated outcrossing rate was a good fit to data obtained from field experiments (y = 1.156x, R (2) = 0.8913, n = 30, P < P 0.01). In the process of model calibration, it was found that only 15.82 % of the total amount of the pollen released by each plant participated in the dispersal process. The variable "a" for genetic pollen competitiveness between donor and recipient was introduced into our model, for the "Zinuo18" and "Su608" used, "a" was 17.47. Finally, the model was successfully used in the spring maize-growing region of Northeast China. The range of MTD1% and MTD0.1% in this region varied from 10 m to 49 m and from 17 m to 125 m, respectively.