Sofiane Bendifallah1, Marcos Ballester2, Catherine Uzan3, Raffaele Fauvet4, Philippe Morice3, Emile Darai2. 1. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Hôpital Tenon, Assistance Publique des Hôpitaux de Paris, Institut Universitaire de Cancérologie, Paris, France; Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) UMR_S 707, "Epidemiology, Information Systems, Modeling", Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France. Electronic address: sofiane.bendifallah@yahoo.fr. 2. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Hôpital Tenon, Assistance Publique des Hôpitaux de Paris, Institut Universitaire de Cancérologie, Paris, France; INSERM UMR_S 938, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France. 3. Department of Gynecologic Surgery and INSERM U 10-30, Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif, and Université Paris-Sud, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France. 4. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Centre hospitalier Universitaire and INSERM ERI-12, Université de Picardie Jules Vernes, Amiens, France.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Recurrence prediction is a cornerstone of patient management for borderline ovarian tumors. This study aimed to develop a nomogram predicting the recurrence probability in individual patients who had received primary surgical treatment. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective multicenter study included 186 patients with borderline ovarian tumor diagnosed from January 1980 through December 2008. A multivariate logistic regression analysis of selected prognostic features was performed and a nomogram to predict recurrence was constructed. The nomogram was internally validated. RESULTS: The overall recurrence rate was 34.4% (64/186), with noninvasive and invasive forms in 29% (54/186) and 5.4% (10/186) of cases, respectively. International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, age at diagnosis, histologic subtype, completeness of surgery, and type of surgery (radical vs fertility sparing) were associated with an increased risk of recurrence and were included in the nomogram. The predictive model had a concordance index of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.80) and 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.79) before and after the 200 repetitions of bootstrap sample corrections, respectively, and showed good calibration. CONCLUSION: Our results support the use of the present nomogram based on 5 clinical and pathological characteristics to predict recurrence probability with a high concordance, hence to inform patients on surgical management. External validation is required to recommend this nomogram in routine practice.
OBJECTIVE: Recurrence prediction is a cornerstone of patient management for borderline ovarian tumors. This study aimed to develop a nomogram predicting the recurrence probability in individual patients who had received primary surgical treatment. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective multicenter study included 186 patients with borderline ovarian tumor diagnosed from January 1980 through December 2008. A multivariate logistic regression analysis of selected prognostic features was performed and a nomogram to predict recurrence was constructed. The nomogram was internally validated. RESULTS: The overall recurrence rate was 34.4% (64/186), with noninvasive and invasive forms in 29% (54/186) and 5.4% (10/186) of cases, respectively. International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, age at diagnosis, histologic subtype, completeness of surgery, and type of surgery (radical vs fertility sparing) were associated with an increased risk of recurrence and were included in the nomogram. The predictive model had a concordance index of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.80) and 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.79) before and after the 200 repetitions of bootstrap sample corrections, respectively, and showed good calibration. CONCLUSION: Our results support the use of the present nomogram based on 5 clinical and pathological characteristics to predict recurrence probability with a high concordance, hence to inform patients on surgical management. External validation is required to recommend this nomogram in routine practice.
Authors: Alicja Ogrodniczak; Janusz Menkiszak; Jacek Gronwald; Joanna Tomiczek-Szwiec; Marek Szwiec; Cezary Cybulski; Tadeusz Dębniak; Tomasz Huzarski; Aleksandra Tołoczko-Grabarek; Tomasz Byrski; Katarzyna Białkowska; Karolina Prajzendanc; Piotr Baszuk; Jan Lubiński; Anna Jakubowska Journal: Hered Cancer Clin Pract Date: 2022-03-21 Impact factor: 2.857