| Literature DB >> 24878504 |
Mason J Ryan1, Michael M Fuller2, Norman J Scott1, Joseph A Cook1, Steven Poe1, Beatriz Willink3, Gerardo Chaves3, Federico Bolaños3.
Abstract
Roughly 40% of amphibian species are in decline with habitat loss, disease, and climate change being the most cited threats. Heterogeneity of extrinsic (e.g. climate) and intrinsic (e.g. local adaptations) factors across a species' range should influence population response to climate change and other threats. Here we examine relative detectability changes for five direct-developing leaf litter frogs between 42-year sampling periods at one Lowland Tropical Forest site (51 m.a.s.l.) and one Premontane Wet Forest site (1100 m.a.s.l.) in southwest Costa Rica. We identify individualistic changes in relative detectability among populations between sampling periods at different elevations. Both common and rare species showed site-specific declines, and no species exhibited significant declines at both sites. Detection changes are correlated with changes in temperature, dry season rainfall, and leaf litter depth since 1969. Our study species share Least Concern conservation status, life history traits, and close phylogenetic relationship, yet their populations changed individualistically both within and among species. These results counter current views of the uniformity or predictability of amphibian decline response and suggest additional complexity for conservation decisions.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2014 PMID: 24878504 PMCID: PMC4039490 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098351
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Plot presence/absence for 1969 and 2000s sampling periods.
| Species | LCBS 1969 | LCBS 2000s | Rincón 1969 | Rincón 2000s |
|
| 2/5 [20%] | 9/28 [32%] | 4/5 [80%] | 1/30 [3%] |
|
| 2/5 [20%] | 0/28 [0%] | 1/5 [20%] | 0/30 [0%] |
|
| 5/5 [100%] | 17/28 [60%] | 5/5 [100%] | 27/30 [90%] |
|
| 3/5 [60%] | 0/28 [0%] | 2/5 [40%] | 2/30 [6%] |
|
| 4/5 [80%] | 4/28 [14%] | 1/5 [20%] | 5/30 [16%] |
Proportions of plots occupied by each species at LCBS and Rincón between sampling periods. Values in brackets are proportion of plots occupied during that sampling period. These data were used to calculate relative detection probabilities used in the logistic regression analysis. See Table S1 for presence/absence for each individual year.
General logistic regression results.
| Species | TimePeriod | Coefficient ±STD Error | Site | Coefficient± STD Error | Time PeriodX Site | Coefficient± STD Error |
|
| 0.082 | −0.23±0.91 | 0.236 | 1.44±1.37 | 0.032* | −2.93±1.54 |
|
| 0.007** | −3.71±1.71 | 0.548 | −0.76±1.37 | 0.770 | 0.69±2.47 |
|
| 0.106 | −1.98±1.66 | 1.00 | 0.00±2.29 | 0.468 | 1.64±2.39 |
|
| 0.007** | −3.71±1.71 | 1.00 | 0.00±1.28 | 0.385 | 1.60±2.05 |
|
| 0.004** | −2.79±1.16 | 0.076 | −2.20±1.46 | 0.099 | 2.36±1.62 |
Logistic regression results relative detection probability calculated from the plot occupancy.
See text for details on analyses. Significance levels: * = 0.05; ** = 0.01.
Firth logistic regression results.
| Species | Rincón | Coefficient ± STD Error | LCBS | Coefficient ± STD Error |
|
| 0.001 | −3.16±1.18 | 0.802 | −0.23±0.99 |
|
| 0.054 | −3.01±1.78 | 0.007 | −3.71±1.71 |
|
| 0.825 | −0.34±1.72 | 0.106 | −1.98±166 |
|
| 0.052 | −2.10±1.13 | 0.007 | −3.71±1.71 |
|
| 0.696 | −0.44±1.14 | 0.004 | −2.79±1.16 |
Site-specific results of Firth logistic regression between sampling periods.
**denotes 0.01 significance level.
Figure 1Changes in detection of the five species between the two sites.
The site-specific Firth logistic regression P–values and direction of relative detection changes between sampling periods and elevation for each species. Upper row is LCBS and lower row is Rincón. See text for details of analysis and Table 1 for raw data.
Figure 2Climatic changes for LCBS and Rincón.
Long-term trends in dry season precipitation and minimum annual temperature for A) LCBS and B) Rincón. Red squares represent temperature; blue squares represent dry season rainfall.