Amir Schechter1, Christopher Griffiths2, Juan Cristóbal Gana3, Ron Shaoul4, Raanan Shamir5, Eyal Shteyer6, Tali Bdolah-Abram7, Oren Ledder1, Dan Turner8. 1. Shaare Zedek Medical Centre, Jerusalem, Israel. 2. The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 3. Gastroenterology and Nutrition Department, Division of Pediatrics, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Chile. 4. Rambam Medical Centre, Haifa, Israel. 5. Schneider Children's Medical Centre, Petah Tikva, Israel. 6. Hadassah Medical Centre, Jerusalem, Israel The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel. 7. Hadassah Medical Centre, Jerusalem, Israel. 8. Shaare Zedek Medical Centre, Jerusalem, Israel The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Data to support treatment algorithms in ambulatory paediatric UC are scarce. We aimed to explore the 1 year outcome in an inception cohort of paediatric UC patients and to identify early predictors of good outcome that might serve as short term treatment targets. DESIGN: A chart review of 115 children with new onset UC was performed (age 11 ± 4.1 years; 58 (50%) males; 86 (75%) extensive colitis; 70 (61%) moderate-severe disease; 63 (55%) received steroids at baseline). We assessed the Paediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI) and laboratory variables at the time of diagnosis and at 3 months, and endoscopy at diagnosis. RESULTS: The 3 month PUCAI was the strongest predictor of 1 year sustained steroid free remission (SSFR) (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.7 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.8) and colectomy by 2 years (AUROC=0.75 (0.6 to 0.89)). SSFR was achieved in 9/54 (17%) children who had active disease (PUCAI ≥ 10) at 3 months (negative predictive value (NPV)=83%) and by 4/46 (8.6%) of those with a PUCAI score >10; (NPV=91%, positive predictive value=52%; p<0.001), implying that PUCAI >10 at 3 months has a probability of 9% for achieving SSFR versus 48% with a PUCAI value of ≤10. None of the variables at baseline was predictive of SSFR or colectomy (endoscopic severity, disease extent, age, PUCAI or C reactive protein/erythrocyte sedimentation rate/albumin/haemoglobin; all AUROC<0.6, p>0.05) but baseline PUCAI predicted subsequent acute severe colitis and the need for salvage medical therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Completeness of the early response appears more important than baseline UC severity for predicting outcome in children, and supports using PUCAI<10 as a feasible treatment goal. Our data suggest that treatment escalation should be considered with a PUCAI value of ≥ 10 at 3 months. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
OBJECTIVE: Data to support treatment algorithms in ambulatory paediatric UC are scarce. We aimed to explore the 1 year outcome in an inception cohort of paediatric UC patients and to identify early predictors of good outcome that might serve as short term treatment targets. DESIGN: A chart review of 115 children with new onset UC was performed (age 11 ± 4.1 years; 58 (50%) males; 86 (75%) extensive colitis; 70 (61%) moderate-severe disease; 63 (55%) received steroids at baseline). We assessed the Paediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI) and laboratory variables at the time of diagnosis and at 3 months, and endoscopy at diagnosis. RESULTS: The 3 month PUCAI was the strongest predictor of 1 year sustained steroid free remission (SSFR) (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.7 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.8) and colectomy by 2 years (AUROC=0.75 (0.6 to 0.89)). SSFR was achieved in 9/54 (17%) children who had active disease (PUCAI ≥ 10) at 3 months (negative predictive value (NPV)=83%) and by 4/46 (8.6%) of those with a PUCAI score >10; (NPV=91%, positive predictive value=52%; p<0.001), implying that PUCAI >10 at 3 months has a probability of 9% for achieving SSFR versus 48% with a PUCAI value of ≤10. None of the variables at baseline was predictive of SSFR or colectomy (endoscopic severity, disease extent, age, PUCAI or C reactive protein/erythrocyte sedimentation rate/albumin/haemoglobin; all AUROC<0.6, p>0.05) but baseline PUCAI predicted subsequent acute severe colitis and the need for salvage medical therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Completeness of the early response appears more important than baseline UC severity for predicting outcome in children, and supports using PUCAI<10 as a feasible treatment goal. Our data suggest that treatment escalation should be considered with a PUCAI value of ≥ 10 at 3 months. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
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