Changes in drinking patterns in the first years after onset: a latent transition analysis of National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) data.

This study examined adult drinking patterns in the first year after onset and whether these patterns changed after 3 years. We also investigated whether specific demographic characteristics or DSM-IV alcohol use disorder symptoms were related to drinking transitions. Data from National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) were analyzed. "Newly onset alcohol users" (NOAUs; n = 854) were adults who initiated drinking in the year prior to Wave 1 (2001-2002) and who were followed-up at Wave 2 (2004-2005). Latent class models were estimated for 10 frequency-type drinking patterns at both waves. Latent transition analysis explored changes in drinking patterns from baseline to follow-up. Three drinker classes emerged at Wave 1: (a) low risk (41%); (b) sporadic hazardous (35%); and (c) regular hazardous (24%). One in 5 (18%) NOAUs stopped drinking by Wave 2 and were assigned to an "abstainer" class. The transition probability into the "abstainer" class was highest for the Wave 1 low risk drinkers (86%). The remaining NOAUs (82%) continued to drink at Wave 2. Of these, 70% of regular hazardous drinkers at Wave 1 maintained this drinking pattern at Wave 2, with approximately 30% reducing their pattern of drinking. One third of sporadic hazardous drinkers at Wave 1 remained at this level of drinking at Wave 2; the remainder escalated the drinking. Tolerance, larger/longer, cut down/quit and withdrawal were common among regular hazardous drinkers. Adult drinkers who engage in a low frequency and quantity drinking pattern are most likely to stop drinking soon after onset. Drinking patterns adopted in the first year after onset were indicative of drinking involvement 3 years later.