Saeideh Fallah-Fini1, Hazhir Rahmandad, Terry T-K Huang, Regina M Bures, Thomas A Glass. 1. At the time of the study, Saeideh Fallah-Fini was with Johns Hopkins Global Center on Childhood Obesity, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD. Hazhir Rahmandad is with the Industrial and Systems Engineering Department, Virginia Tech, Falls Church, VA. Terry T.-K. Huang is with Department of Health Promotion, Social and Behavioral Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, College of Public Health, Omaha. Regina M. Bures is with Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD. Thomas A. Glass is with Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Regina M. Bures is also a guest editor for this theme issue.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We present a system dynamics model that quantifies the energy imbalance gap responsible for the US adult obesity epidemic among gender and racial subpopulations. METHODS: We divided the adult population into gender-race/ethnicity subpopulations and body mass index (BMI) classes. We defined transition rates between classes as a function of metabolic dynamics of individuals within each class. We estimated energy intake in each BMI class within the past 4 decades as a multiplication of the equilibrium energy intake of individuals in that class. Through calibration, we estimated the energy gap multiplier for each gender-race-BMI group by matching simulated BMI distributions for each subpopulation against national data with maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: No subpopulation showed a negative or zero energy gap, suggesting that the obesity epidemic continues to worsen, albeit at a slower rate. In the past decade the epidemic has slowed for non-Hispanic Whites, is starting to slow for non-Hispanic Blacks, but continues to accelerate among Mexican Americans. CONCLUSIONS: The differential energy balance gap across subpopulations and over time suggests that interventions should be tailored to subpopulations' needs.
OBJECTIVES: We present a system dynamics model that quantifies the energy imbalance gap responsible for the US adult obesity epidemic among gender and racial subpopulations. METHODS: We divided the adult population into gender-race/ethnicity subpopulations and body mass index (BMI) classes. We defined transition rates between classes as a function of metabolic dynamics of individuals within each class. We estimated energy intake in each BMI class within the past 4 decades as a multiplication of the equilibrium energy intake of individuals in that class. Through calibration, we estimated the energy gap multiplier for each gender-race-BMI group by matching simulated BMI distributions for each subpopulation against national data with maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: No subpopulation showed a negative or zero energy gap, suggesting that the obesity epidemic continues to worsen, albeit at a slower rate. In the past decade the epidemic has slowed for non-Hispanic Whites, is starting to slow for non-Hispanic Blacks, but continues to accelerate among Mexican Americans. CONCLUSIONS: The differential energy balance gap across subpopulations and over time suggests that interventions should be tailored to subpopulations' needs.
Authors: Boyd A Swinburn; Gary Sacks; Kevin D Hall; Klim McPherson; Diane T Finegood; Marjory L Moodie; Steven L Gortmaker Journal: Lancet Date: 2011-08-27 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: Andrew P Jones; Jack B Homer; Dara L Murphy; Joyce D K Essien; Bobby Milstein; Donald A Seville Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2006-01-31 Impact factor: 9.308
Authors: Katherine Hafekost; David Lawrence; Francis Mitrou; Therese A O'Sullivan; Stephen R Zubrick Journal: BMC Med Date: 2013-02-18 Impact factor: 8.775
Authors: Bruce Y Lee; Sarah M Bartsch; Yeeli Mui; Leila A Haidari; Marie L Spiker; Joel Gittelsohn Journal: Nutr Rev Date: 2017-01 Impact factor: 7.110
Authors: Mohammad S Jalali; Hazhir Rahmandad; Sally Lawrence Bullock; Seung Hee Lee-Kwan; Joel Gittelsohn; Alice Ammerman Journal: Soc Sci Med Date: 2018-12-23 Impact factor: 4.634
Authors: Bradley M Appelhans; Simone A French; Tamara Olinger; Michael Bogucki; Imke Janssen; Elizabeth F Avery-Mamer; Lisa M Powell Journal: Appetite Date: 2018-03-15 Impact factor: 3.868
Authors: Susan T Laing; Beverly Smulevitz; Kristina P Vatcheva; Mohammad H Rahbar; Belinda Reininger; David D McPherson; Joseph B McCormick; Susan P Fisher-Hoch Journal: J Am Heart Assoc Date: 2015-03-18 Impact factor: 5.501