| Literature DB >> 24817783 |
Lukasz Grewling1, Bogdan Jackowiak1, Matt Smith2.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to supply detailed information about oak (Quercus sp.) pollen seasons in Poznań, Poland, based on a 16-year aerobiological data series (1996-2011). The pollen data were collected using a volumetric spore trap of the Hirst design located in Poznań city center. The limits of the pollen seasons were calculated using the 95 % method. The influence of meteorological parameters on temporal variations in airborne pollen was examined using correlation analysis. Start and end dates of oak pollen seasons in Poznań varied markedly from year-to-year (14 and 17 days, respectively). Most of the pollen grains (around 75 % of the seasonal pollen index) were recorded within the first 2 weeks of the pollen season. The tenfold variation was observed between the least and the most intensive pollen seasons. These fluctuations were significantly related to the variation in the sum of rain during the period second fortnight of March to first fortnight of April the year before pollination (r = 0.799; p < 0.001). During the analyzing period, a significant advance in oak pollen season start dates was observed (-0.55 day/year; p = 0.021), which was linked with an increase in the mean temperature during the second half of March and first half of April (+0.2 °C; p = 0.014). Daily average oak pollen counts correlated positively with mean and maximum daily temperatures, and negatively with daily rainfall and daily mean relative humidity.Entities:
Keywords: Central Europe; Climate change; Trends
Year: 2013 PMID: 24817783 PMCID: PMC4012158 DOI: 10.1007/s10453-013-9313-3
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Aerobiologia (Bologna) ISSN: 0393-5965 Impact factor: 2.410
Characteristics and trends of oak pollen seasons in Poznań (1996–2011)
| Years | Start (DOY) | End (DOY) | Duration (days) | SPI (grains) | Peak value (P/m3) | Peak day (DOY) | Duration of pre-peak period (days) | Numbers of days with pollen level above 80 P/m3 | Percentage of total SPI during 4 × 1 weekly periods of pollen season | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st week | 2nd week | 3rd week | 4th week | |||||||||
| 1996 | 124 | 150 | 27 | 1996 | 512 | 134 | 11 | 7 | 28.3 | 53.2 | 15.9 | 3.1 |
| 1997 | 125 | 158 | 34 | 229 | 48 | 137 | 13 | 0 | 12.2 | 62.9 | 15.3 | 5.7 |
| 1998 | 118 | 143 | 26 | 2037 | 298 | 129 | 12 | 8 | 29.6 | 54.8 | 8.8 | 7.9 |
| 1999 | 114 | 140 | 27 | 658 | 105 | 120 | 7 | 2 | 11.4 | 64.4 | 15.3 | 10.3 |
| 2000 | 115 | 139 | 25 | 672 | 123 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 59.7 | 29.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 |
| 2001 | 121 | 150 | 30 | 972 | 130 | 131 | 11 | 5 | 20.6 | 60.2 | 14.7 | 3.6 |
| 2002 | 120 | 155 | 36 | 1291 | 211 | 124 | 5 | 5 | 57.4 | 14.6 | 27.7 | 0.6 |
| 2003 | 120 | 153 | 34 | 1500 | 260 | 125 | 6 | 7 | 67.6 | 22.1 | 6.9 | 2.5 |
| 2004 | 120 | 157 | 38 | 586 | 94 | 125 | 6 | 2 | 59.0 | 21.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 |
| 2005 | 121 | 159 | 39 | 809 | 84 | 123 | 3 | 1 | 32.8 | 16.9 | 29.0 | 16.2 |
| 2006 | 111 | 148 | 38 | 836 | 145 | 134 | 24 | 2 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 26.7 | 53.9 |
| 2007 | 113 | 138 | 26 | 999 | 169 | 125 | 13 | 2 | 35.3 | 55.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 |
| 2008 | 122 | 147 | 26 | 1248 | 249 | 133 | 12 | 2 | 19.2 | 43.1 | 12.8 | 5.8 |
| 2009 | 113 | 132 | 20 | 2514 | 424 | 116 | 4 | 9 | 52.1 | 41.1 | 7.4 | 1.4 |
| 2010 | 111 | 150 | 40 | 1479 | 296 | 120 | 10 | 5 | 1.2 | 49.0 | 23.9 | 14.3 |
| 2011 | 114 | 136 | 23 | 1570 | 214 | 117 | 4 | 6 | 59.0 | 26.2 | 13.9 | 1.8 |
| Mean | 118 | 147 | 31 | 1212 | 210 | 126 | 9 | 4 | 35 | 38 | 15 | 9 |
| Min | 111.0 | 132.0 | 20.0 | 229.0 | 48.0 | 116.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 0.6 |
| Max | 125.0 | 159.0 | 40.0 | 2514.0 | 512.0 | 137.0 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 67.6 | 64.4 | 29.0 | 53.9 |
| β |
| −0.549 | 0.004 | 28.921 | 0.794 | −0.659 | −0.106 | 0.053 | 0.469 | −1.529 | 0.169 | 0.405 |
| R2 |
| 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.005 | 0.227 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.134 | 0.011 | 0.022 |
| p |
| 0.239 | 0.990 | 0.403 | 1.891 | 0.062 | 0.727 | 0.743 | 0.706 | 0.162 | 0.696 | 0.581 |
Fig. 1Trends in oak pollen season start dates and daily mean temperature during the 15 March–15 April (A) and graphical presentation of the relationship between these two parameters (B)
Selected significant Pearson correlations coefficients between particular characteristics of oak pollen seasons and meteorological parameters (576 correlations in total/75 significant)
| Pollen season parameter | Period | Meteorological parameter | Pearson coefficient |
|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||
| Pollen season start | 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Temp mean (°C) | −0.707** |
| 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Temp min (°C) | −0.686** | |
| 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Temp max (°C) | −0.668** | |
| 2nd fortnight of March | Temp min (°C) | −0.641** | |
| 2nd fortnight of March | Temp mean (°C) | −0.639** | |
| 2nd fortnight of March | Rainfall (mm) | −0.634** | |
| 1st fortnight of April | Temp mean (°C) | −0.590* | |
| Pollen season end | April | Temp mean (°C) | −0.789*** |
| April | Temp max (°C) | −0.742** | |
| April | Temp min (°C) | −0.714** | |
| 1st fortnight of April | Temp min (°C) | −0.610* | |
| 1st fortnight of April | Temp mean (°C) | −0.595* | |
| 2nd fortnight of April | Temp max (°C) | −0.574* | |
| 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Temp mean (°C) | −0.564* | |
| Peak day | 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Temp max (°C) | −0.819*** |
| 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Temp mean (°C) | −0.753*** | |
| 1st fortnight of April | Temp max (°C) | −0.693** | |
| 1st fortnight of April | Temp mean (°C) | −0.683** | |
| 2nd fortnight of March | Temp max (°C) | −0.634* | |
| 2nd fortnight of March | Temp mean (°C) | −0.604* | |
| 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Temp min (°C) | −0.592* | |
|
| |||
| SPI | 2nd fortnight of March–1st fortnight of April | Rainfall (mm) | 0.799*** |
| 2nd fortnight of March–April | Rainfall (mm) | 0.763*** | |
| February–1st fortnight of March | Temp mean (°C) | 0.643** | |
| February–1st fortnight of March | Temp min (°C) | 0.625* | |
| February | Temp mean (°C) | 0.619* | |
| February | Temp min (°C) | 0.617* | |
| August–2nd fortnight of September | Rainfall (mm) | 0.556* | |
* p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001
Selected significant Pearson correlations coefficients between the characteristics of oak pollen season and meteorological parameters recorded during the pollen season (60 correlations in total/11 significant)
| Pollen season parameter | Meteorological parameters | Correlation coefficient |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of pollen during first week of pollen season | Temp mean (°C) during first week of pollen season | 0.792*** |
| Temp max (°C) during first week of pollen season | 0.736** | |
| Temp min (°C) during first week of pollen season | 0.693** | |
| Length of pollen season | Sum of rain (mm) during second week of pollen season | 0.719** |
| Sum of rain (mm) during whole pollen season | 0.690** |
* p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001
Spearman correlation coefficients between daily oak pollen concentrations and selected meteorological parameters
| Years | Temp mean (°C) | Temp max (°C) | Temp min (°C) | Rainfall (mm) | Humidity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | ns | ns | ns | ns | ns |
| 1997 | 0.507** | 0.538** | 0.441* | ns | ns |
| 1998 | 0.500* | 0.435* | 0.583** | ns | ns |
| 1999 | ns | ns | −0.506** | −0.413* | −0.490* |
| 2000 | ns | ns | 0.421* | ns | ns |
| 2001 | ns | ns | ns | ns | ns |
| 2002 | ns | ns | ns | ns | ns |
| 2003 | ns | ns | ns | ns | ns |
| 2004 | ns | ns | ns | ns | ns |
| 2005 | ns | ns | ns | ns | ns |
| 2006 | 0.505** | 0.466** | ns | ns | −0.406* |
| 2007 | ns | ns | ns | −0.548** | −0.814*** |
| 2008 | ns | 0.461* | ns | ns | −0.622*** |
| 2009 | 0.575** | 0.686** | ns | −0.707*** | −0.698*** |
| 2010 | 0.328* | ns | ns | −0.327* | ns |
| 2011 | ns | ns | ns | −0.587** | −0.691*** |
| 1996–2011 | 0.170*** | 0.204*** | ns | −0.289*** | −0.286*** |
ns not significant
* p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001