Chromosomal aneuploidies and combinational fluorescence in situ hybridization probe panels are useful for predicting prognosis for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a common cancer type in China. In this study, we aimed to develop aneuploidy markers for diagnosis and prognosis of ESCC.
METHODS: Chromosomal aneuploidies were detected in 493 primary tumors and 61 precancerous lesions by fluorescence in situ hybridization with chromosome enumeration probes (CEP), and cut-off values were set by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.
RESULTS: According to the cut-off values, chromosomes 3, 8, 10, 12, 17 and 20 presented frequent gains, with rates of 70.1, 69.7, 58.9, 66.9, 67.5 and 77.2 % in tumors and of 32.1, 26.8, 33.9, 41.2, 44.0 and 42.0 % in precancerous lesions. Loss of chromosome Y was detected in 72.0 % of male patients. An optimal four-probe panel CEP3/12/17/20 was established for detecting ESCC (sensitivity: 86.1 %), and CEP3/10/12/20 for precancerous lesions (sensitivity: 48.0 %). Gain of CEP8 was significantly correlated with lymph node metastasis (LNM) and late stages (P = 0.002 and 0.001), and loss of CEPY with age (P = 0.002, male). Kaplan-Meier survival curves indicated that patients with positive CEP10/17 (pT1 + T2, P = 0.041) and CEP8/17 (stages IIb + III + IV, P = 0.002) had poor overall survival. Combinations of LNM/stage and CEP panels could divide patients into more subgroups, including LNM + CEP3/17, LNM + CEP10/17, LNM + CEP3/10/17, stage + CEP3/17, stage + CEP10/17 and stage + CEP3/10/17 (P = 0.0004, 0.0003, 0.0001, 0.005, 0.001 and 0.0008, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that the above combinational models were independent prognostic factors.
CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the combinational probe sets may have potential for detection and prognostic prediction of ESCC.